212 FXUS62 KMHX 291047 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 647 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the central waters tonight through Tuesday evening for seas up to 6-7 feet. Updated Aviation Discussion && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will push offshore this morning with a weak area of low pressure developing off the SE coast. Slightly cooler temps with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Dangerous heat develops late week and continues into early next with major to extreme heat risk possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms have moved offshore early this morning and a backdoor cold front is presently pushing south across the area. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front off the Southeast coast later today and Tuesday and the front slowly drifts southward. NHC currently gives the low a 10 percent chance for tropical development. However, gradients between the low offshore and high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring NE winds, leading to somewhat cooler temps across the region, especially NE sections. Much less thunderstorm activity expected today but could see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with diffluence aloft and a weak vort max approaching the area. Best chances will be across inland and southern section where instability is forecast to be greatest, MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Shear will be limited and not expected storms to reach severe limits. Upper ridging builds eastward Tuesday with subsidence aloft curtailing storm development, though could see a few shower or thunderstorms off the coast near the Gulf Stream. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat builds into the east coast late week into the weekend as upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS with H85 temps climbing to around 20-23C Thursday through Monday. This will bring and extended period of temps reaching the mid 90s to lower 100 degree range each day with the highest temps expected on Saturday and Sunday. Heat indices are forecast to reach 105-110 Friday through Monday. NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values for Thursday have come down some but still reach a moderate to major risk of heat related illnesses. Major to extreme heat risk continue to be forecast Friday through Sunday with a 60-80% chance for major heat risk or higher on Friday, and 80-100% chance on Saturday and Sunday. The chance for extreme heat risk is around 60-80% on Saturday and Sunday with compounding days of heat with poor overnight recoveries. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A backdoor cold front is pushing offshore this morning. Sub- VFR cigs have developed behind the front with a period IFR/LIFR cigs initially behind the front, but cigs have been gradually lifting across northern rtes as drier air begins to filter into the areas. Conditions slowly lift through the morning but sub- VFR conditions are possible through mid-day. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with best chances across southern rtes. Continue to have prob 30 for thunderstorms at OAJ mid to late afternoon while probs are lower at the other TAF locations. VFR conditions this evening but could see patchy shallow fog develop at some locations that decouple late tonight. Outlook (Tuesday through Fri): Dry weather is expected to prevail with pred VFR conditions, but could see patchy fog and low stratus each morning. && .MARINE... A cold front is pushing across the waters early this morning with N to NE winds developing behind the front The front will push offshore and a weak area of low pressure will develop along the front while high pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will bring NE winds around 15-20 kt across the waters this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt at times but not expected to be persistent enough to warrant a SCA for winds at this time. However, the stronger winds and prolonged NE fetch will bring seas with guidance bringing the central waters up to 5-7 ft this evening through Tuesday evening, and have issued a SCA for seas with this forecast package. Outlook (Wednesday through Friday): The Bermuda high become dominant mid to late week with wind generally around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ152-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK AVIATION...SK MARINE...SK