670 FXUS62 KMHX 010554 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1254 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fog threat continues to increase tonight and patchy dense fog remains possible, mainly after midnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers Sunday evening. 2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft. 3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures. 4) Patchy dense fog will be possible tonight. Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape through this evening. Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night with the potential for Gales on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient tomorrow with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the mid 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area tomorrow night. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for a few showers, so 15-30% PoPs have been added to the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night's front will keep temperatures significantly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons. KEY MESSAGE 4...Skies remain clear, and winds have become calm across ENC this evening. In addition to that, ample low level moisture remains in place after the previous days rain which has resulted in patchy ground fog developing across portions of ENC. Expect fog to continue to expand and potentially become thick at times with visibilities of less than a mile possible with the greatest threat coming after midnight tonight. Biggest challenge will be how widespread this fog gets, but current thinking is that areas along and east of Hwy 17 have the greatest chance at seeing dense fog. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aviation forecast overnight remains challenging, and features low confidence. Based on satellite and webcams, the FG being reported at times around ENC appears to be of the shallow variety. However, with good radiational cooling conditions, the potential of a more widespread, and impactful FG, still exists. However, it's unclear when, or if, this will develop. For now, this uncertainty is reflected via TEMPO groups. If observations, satellite, and webcams begin to show evidence of a more impactful FG risk, the TAFs will be updated as appropriate. Stay tuned for amendments through the night. Any BR/FG should mix out by 13 or 14z Sunday morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail into Sunday afternoon. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, a cold front will move south through ENC. This is expected to occur between 20z-03z. The front will be accompanied by a north to northeast wind shift, and increasingly gusty winds. There may be just enough lift, moisture, and instability for a few SHRA to develop along the front. Should this occur, a quick drop in VIS can be expected. A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front as well. Outlook: Behind Sunday's front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show northerly winds at 10-20 kt with 3-4 ft seas. There's potential for some 5-6 ft seas along the outer coastal waters between the capes through this evening, but these conditions are expected to be brief and isolated, so a SCA has not been issued. Tomorrow will have good boating conditions until the evening when a strong cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, SCA winds will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours, and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Northeast winds will continue to increase on Monday, peaking in the afternoon at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. The Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras have the best chance at seeing Gale force gusts on Monday. Seas will build in response, increasing to 6-8 ft Monday night and 6-11 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will relax Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night. Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters starting Sunday night. Given that the Gale force gusts are more than 36 hours out, strictly SCAs have been issued at this time but will likely need to be upgraded to a Gale Watch with the next cycle. Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have good boating conditions with winds and seas remaining sub-SCA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCF/OJC AVIATION...RM MARINE...OJC