675 FXUS62 KMHX 282358 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 658 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight chance/low-end chance PoPs have been added tomorrow evening as a strong cold front moves through. SCAs have been issued for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound due to strong post frontal northeast winds starting Sunday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers Sunday evening. 2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft. 3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures. Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape through this evening. Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night with the potential for Gales on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient tomorrow with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the mid 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area tomorrow night. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for a few showers, so 15-30% PoPs have been added to the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night's front will keep temperatures significantly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there's potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Currently seeing widespread VFR conditions across ENC this evening as any left over cloud cover from the departing front is now offshore. High pressure should continue to build overhead tonight before quickly exiting off the coast Sun morning allowing for light and variable to calm winds across the region with the overall flow regime eventually flipping around to become more SW to W'rly by day break Sun remaining at or below 5 kts into Sun afternoon. Good radiational cooling under clear skies, calm winds, and residual moist low-levels should allow for reduced VIS to return in BR/FG mainly around and after 04-06Z tonight. Fog/BR should gradually develop across the NE'rn zones and then spread south along and east of Hwy 17 tonight with a lower threat for fog across TAF sites and areas west of Hwy 17. As a result have kept IFR vis in at EWN with a tempo group of IFR vis at OAJ as these terminals and points east have the best shot at seeing reduced vis. Have MVFR vis noted at PGV/ISO and areas west as these locations have a lower threat for fog tonight. Either way, expect to see patchy fog develop after 04Z potentially becoming more widespread and dense at times overnight with fog remaining in place until about 13/14Z Sun before dissipating. VFR returns once fog dissipates Sun morning. Front begins to sweep across ENC from N-S Sun afternoon from about 18-21Z and beyond resulting in a quick shift in wind direction from SW/W to NW/NE starting from north to south between 20Z Sun and 00Z Mon with showers potentially following after 00Z Mon. Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move south through ENC on late SUN with a notable northerly wind shift. A few SHRA or TSRA may accompany this front, although not all guidance show this potential. Behind the front, a weak weather system is forecast to move through the area early next week, and this system should provide the next chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC. && .MARINE... Latest obs show northerly winds at 10-20 kt with 3-4 ft seas. There's potential for some 5-6 ft seas along the outer coastal waters between the capes through this evening, but these conditions are expected to be brief and isolated, so a SCA has not been issued. Tomorrow will have good boating conditions until the evening when a strong cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, SCA winds will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours, and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Northeast winds will continue to increase on Monday, peaking in the afternoon at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. The Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras have the best chance at seeing Gale force gusts on Monday. Seas will build in response, increasing to 6-8 ft Monday night and 6-11 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will relax Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night. Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters starting Sunday night. Given that the Gale force gusts are more than 36 hours out, strictly SCAs have been issued at this time but will likely need to be upgraded to a Gale Watch with the next cycle. Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have good boating conditions with winds and seas remaining sub-SCA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ DISCUSSION...OJC AVIATION...CEB/RCF MARINE...OJC