051 FXUS66 KMFR 292201 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 301 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .DISCUSSION...Northerly flow aloft on the backside of an upper trough continues to push midlevel clouds into Coos and Douglas County, with the Umpqua Divide limiting flow farther south. Areas of terrain-generated cumulus are present to the east, with some upper level tufts moving southward as well. While some clearing is visible on satellite this afternoon, cloud cover looks to increase over Coos and Douglas counties overnight. Mid-level clouds may overflow into the Rogue Valley and bank up against the southern end into Tuesday morning. However, these clouds offer no chance of precipitation. With the upper trough remaining in place, temperatures will remain below seasonal norms to start the week but will warm steadily. By Friday, temperatures look to be at average levels. A shortwave ridge will nudge daytime highs about 5 degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday. The tug-of-war between warmer daytime highs and clearing skies is keeping frost/freeze concerns in the forecast east of the Cascades. The coldest temperatures are forecast in Klamath Marsh, where sub- freezing overnight lows continue through the week. Surrounding communities, including Crescent and Chemult, may see periods of frost/freeze conditions just before sunrise through the week. Additional overnight cooling reaches towards southern Lake and Klamath counties Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which may support a Frost Advisory. As of this writing, confidence in reaching those threshold temperatures as well as their duration (3 hours for a ) are not high enough to issue that product. Individuals with especially sensitive plants or animals may want to consider preventative action. Small pockets of instability following the upper flow are expected to bring breezy afternoon winds, especially on Tuesday and Thursday. For these days, gusts at lower elevations look to be in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts over elevated terrain could reach 20 to 30 mph. Long-term guidance shows little expectation of change into early July. Neither ECMWF nor GFS meteograms show any inland precipitation, with unorganized chances for insignificant rainfall at North Bend. Considering Medford, GFS outcomes keep daytime highs at seasonal levels (About 85 degrees) while ECMWF members trend a bit higher (About 90 degrees) beyond the holiday weekend. -TAD && .AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs...VFR levels persist across northern California and southern Oregon late this morning. Northerly flow continues to push clouds into Douglas and Coos counties. Ceilings at North Bend and Roseburg may periodically reach MVFR levels, but this is not generally expected during the day. The Umpqua Divide is keeping these clouds from traveling farther south. Some midlevel cumulus is developing over terrain in Jackson County. MVFR ceilings are possible along the coast and into the Umpqua Valley overnight. There's a slight chance of these ceilings reaching Medford if the clouds can spill over terrain. Any MVFR ceilings that develop overnight look to dissipate by the end of the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, June 29, 2026...Strong north winds will result in very steep seas and isolated Gales from Gold Beach southward through Wednesday night. North of these areas, incoming swell and north winds will maintain steep seas through Wednesday night. While wind speeds do relax somewhat Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, the general trend is for these conditions to last through Wednesday night. Thereafter, small craft conditions may last through later parts of the week, mainly for the southern waters. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$ TAD/TAD/TAD