220 FXUS62 KMFL 291122 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 722 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 721 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Much drier today with a few showers possible over southwest areas this afternoon. - Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts again expected today with widespread triple-digit heat index values, even briefly touching 110 degrees possible. - Rain chances will begin increasing once again on Tuesday ahead of an approaching front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Overall forecast scenario remains consistent in guidance with mid- U/L high pressure remaining in control of much of the region today. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure over the W Atlantic will keep its associated sfc ridge stretched into the central portions of the state, but will slowly begin migrating southward and closer to SoFlo as a low develops offshore the Carolinas and pushing an associated front into the northern half of the peninsula during the short term. Radar data from yesterday showed the onset of a brief drying trend with less overall shower/thunderstorm activity compared to last week, an indication that the expected influence of a SAL is finally here. NBM has trended even lower for PoPs/Wx coverage today, with single-digits across most of SoFlo. Therefore, expect a generally dry day with a few showers possible favoring SW areas. The drier airmass will allow for afternoon temps to climb into the mid-upper 90s, especially over interior and west coast areas today. Heat index values will be closely monitored for potential advisory criteria, but latest guidance remains persistent in not reaching duration criteria for west coast areas. Regardless, potential for max heat index values touching 109-110 degrees will reside mainly across interior/western Collier county this afternoon. People should exercise caution while outdoors, take frequent breaks, stay hydrated and wear light clothing. Avoid prolonged exposure to sunlight and look for shelter if necessary. For Tuesday, the synoptic scenario will evolve rather quickly, shifting back to a wetter pattern ahead of the nearing aforementioned frontal boundary. Deeper moisture quickly filters into the area with a much wetter vertical profile on model soundings (back to PWATs around 2"). PoPs jump back into the 30-50% for east coast areas, and 60-70% for interior and west coast areas by the mid/late afternoon hours. A key difference will also be the weakening of the synoptic flow, which will become light and variable, or even calm at times. This will result in mainly slow- moving or even stationary cells with little to no steering flow available, which will then increase the potential for localized downpours and flooding. Sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions will also enhance thunderstorm development, which will be capable of producing strong damaging winds, small hail and frequent lightning strikes. Despite the increase in cloud cover and rain chances, the heat issues will continue on Tuesday with max temperatures running in the low- mid 90s, and with the increased moisture keeping heat index values in the 100-105 degrees range along the east coast. For the west coast expect heat index values again in the 105-109 degrees range, possibly touching 110 at times. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Only adjustment to ongoing long term forecast philosophy is to extend the wet pattern through the weekend with global solutions and NBM pushing max PoPs into the 80-90% range each afternoon. The synoptic setup will be dominated by weak to calm flow at the sfc with pressure gradients between the W Atl ridge and the front to the north remaining very relaxed. The overall weather pattern will continue to allow for afternoon sea breezes to develop and become focal points for the first round of weather. As they push inland, outflow boundary collisions will likely drive the late afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity, especially over interior areas. But some storms should develop over coastal metro areas early in the afternoon, or drift into them later in the day or in the early evening hours. Localized flooding will remain one of the main concerns with slow- moving or even stationary storms delivering high rates of rainfall over one location. Another concern will continue to be the HeatRisk level, remaining in the Moderate to Major category at least through Friday. Max temps could reach the mid-upper 90s mid week, and stay in the low-mid 90s through the rest of the forecast period. This will combine with abundant warm moisture lingering over the area to keep Heat Index Values close to advisory criteria. The situation will continue to be closely monitored in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all sites today with very low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds early this morning become southeasterly 5-10 kts by 15Z, with a southwesterly breeze developing at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 High pressure remains in control of the region through the first half of the week with light to moderate SSE winds over the Atlantic waters, becoming SSW over the Gulf waters with afternoon sea breezes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday, and continue through the rest of the forecast period as a frontal boundary reaches central Florida. Thunderstorms may produce locally strong winds and rough seas. Seas are generally expected to remain at 2 feet or less outside of any thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 94 79 / 10 0 40 30 West Kendall 95 76 95 77 / 10 0 50 20 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 79 / 10 0 40 30 Homestead 93 79 93 79 / 10 0 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 93 80 / 0 0 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 93 80 / 0 0 30 30 Pembroke Pines 96 80 97 81 / 0 0 40 30 West Palm Beach 92 78 93 79 / 10 0 40 30 Boca Raton 91 80 93 80 / 0 0 30 30 Naples 94 79 93 78 / 10 20 40 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...ATV