539 FXUS62 KMFL 300503 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Quiet and comfortable weather today. - A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region tonight into Tuesday morning, ushering colder and drier conditions to start the new year. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 238 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A strong cold front located just west of the Appalachians early this morning will continue to move southward through the short term period, reaching central Florida by this evening and crossing South Florida between tonight and tomorrow. Conditions ahead of the front today will remain largely unchanged, with continued mild temperatures and generally benign weather. However, overnight lows tonight could begin to dip in response to the frontal approach, especially across the northernmost counties in our CWA. Areas near Lake Okeechobee could see lows in the low 50s, while a notable north- to-south gradient will develop, and lows farther south will remain in the low 60s. The frontal passage on Tuesday will bring a more noticeable change on conditions as the day progresses. Northerly winds will increase as the front moves through, becoming breezy at times and advecting a much cooler, much drier airmass along with it. In fact, maximum temperatures during the day will run a good 5-10 degrees lower than temperatures over the past week as the front drops through (highs in the low 70s instead of the low 80s across the coast, and lower still into the mid 60s in areas near Lake Okeechobee). Model guidance still tries to develop some isolated showers with this front, but they'll be confined to the local Atlantic waters during the day. Areas of patchy fog could be possible across the interior once again early this morning given light winds and sufficient low-level moisture. SREF and HREF guidance suggests coverage become dense in nature, with visibility in some areas dropping below one quarter of a mile at times, resulting in hazardous commuting conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 With the aforementioned cold front moving south of the region Tuesday night, high pressure will build over the southeast US and FL and an unseasonably cold air mass will overspread the region, marking the start of a notable cold air snap that will persist through the workweek. Model guidance has continue to trend colder for Tuesday and Wednesday nights with each successive run, especially across the northern areas of our CWA. This trend has helped increase our confidence regarding the upcoming period of well- below normal temperatures. The current forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday nights reflects a slightly more bullish philosophy of this guidance, with the lowest minimum temperatures ranging from 33-36F across some areas near Lake Okeechobee (roughly within the 25th-50th percentile of available solutions). Persistent northerly winds Tuesday night could result in even cooler apparent temperatures overnight, ranging between the upper 20s and lower 30s across portions of the interior, including areas in Glades and Hendry. Cold Weather Advisories could be needed as a result if this forecast holds. Minimum temperatures across the East Coast and southwest Florida will also dip, ranging from the upper 30s into the upper 40s. Wind speeds will decrease come Wednesday, which will help keep overnight apparent temperatures a few degrees warmer as compared to Tuesday night. Nevertheless, the potential for Cold Weather Advisory criteria, as well as the potential for frost, will continue to be monitored as we approach the middle of the week. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday will remain cool and pleasant, maxing out in the 60s during the afternoon. A (very) gradual warming trend is expected to begin on Thursday as high pressure shifts east and low-level flow moderates. Temperatures should be back to seasonable values by the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 SCT MVFR ceilings this morning as a frontal boundary crosses the area. Winds behind the front become NW around 10 kts with some afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 49 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 47 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 75 47 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 48 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 48 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 73 45 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 45 66 44 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 71 47 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 69 43 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ651-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-676. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ657. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF