266 FXUS64 KMEG 291127 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Dangerous and oppressive heat is expected this week with heat index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees into Tuesday. Some locations may reach or exceed 110 degrees by the middle to end of this week. - Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures only cooling to the mid to upper 70s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Another warm and humid overnight continues across the Mid-South with generally clear conditions and temperatures spanning the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will fall a few more degrees under clear skies overnight, only dipping to the mid 70s by Monday morning. Through the rest of the day on Monday, our heat wave we have been highlighting the past few forecast cycles will really begin to ramp up. An upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen through the day, driving the overall weather pattern across the region through essentially the rest of the week. Maximum temperatures will peak in the mid 90s tomorrow, with heat index values likely reaching above 105 for much of the area. As such, the Heat Advisory for Monday has been expanded to cover the entire Mid-South. There is still a bit of uncertainty with respect to our dew point temperatures by the afternoon, which will play a role in the peak heat indices that we see. Some guidance wants locations generally along and north of the I- 40 corridor to reach 110, which would reach our Extreme Heat Warning criteria. However, HREF probabilities keep these locations at only around a 10-20% chance of occurrence. Given the lack of confidence, have opted to keep the Heat Advisory in place for now. A similar story will unfold on Tuesday, although conditions may be more favorable for even warmer temperatures. If upgrades to an Extreme Heat Warning would be needed, it would likely be across the MS Delta, eastern AR, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of West TN. By the middle to end of the week, the surface high pressure system that has been parked over the region so far will slowly begin to drift eastward even though the parent upper-level ridge will remain well in place. NBM guidance suggests that high temperatures will remain in the upper 90s, with a few places wanting to push closer to 100. However, LREF guidance through this time period does show that these values would be on the upper end of guidance. With the slight eastward jog of the high pressure, this could allow for daily, diurnal driven thunderstorm activity to return in the afternoons. Typically when this occurs, this will limit the higher end of our temperatures, leading me to believe that most may stay closer to the mid 90s. Nonetheless, oppressive heat will continue with the likely need for additional heat headlines to round out the week and weekend. Longer range guidance does have this ridge finally breaking down into next week, which would provide some relief to the area. However, it does appear that the summer-like conditions are here to stay. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR will continue over the next 30 hours under high amplitude upper level ridge. At the surface, a pressure axis will extend from LA through middle TN. resulting in prevailing SSW winds across the Midsouth TAF sites. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent. The next chance for any measurable precipitation will not arrive until the middle to latter half of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>012-020. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for MSZ001>017-020>024. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ013>017-021>024. TN...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB