615 FXUS64 KMAF 292259 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 559 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Medium (40-60%, up to 70%) shower and thunderstorm chances persist through at least Wednesday, mainly for the higher terrain west of the Pecos. Some storms may produce damaging downburst winds. - Temperatures trend down through Wednesday before warming back above normal by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Upper-level ridging continues to build across the eastern half of the CONUS this afternoon, while troughing is evident over the western half. Our area is more or less caught between these two features under southwesterly flow aloft. The eastward displacement of the ridge allows temperatures to trend down through the short term period. While highs today still top out in the upper 90s or just above 100 degrees for most locations, by tomorrow afternoon mid- to-upper 90s become more commonplace (80s in the mountains). Overnight lows remain in the low-to-mid 70s across eastern portions of the area and along the Rio Grande thanks to the low-level jet and residual cloud cover. Meanwhile, lows in the upper 60s will be more common farther to the west. Similar to what we have seen the past week or so, scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again develop both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. The best chances will be in/around the higher terrain west of the Pecos River (most notably the Davis Mountains, where chances range from 50-70%). A few storms will also develop off the higher terrain into western and central portions of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos (20-40% chances for these locations). Once again, the big concern with any storms that develop today and tomorrow will be the potential for damaging downburst winds. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue over much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday as our forecast area remains sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and an upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft along with abundant moisture will favor the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Upper Trans Pecos regions. Other isolated to scattered storms may develop into southeast New Mexico and the central and western Permian Basin. A few storms may become strong to severe given sufficient instability/DCAPE and up to 20-30 kt of deep layer shear. A similar pattern continues on Thursday, with the best convective chances once again focused over the southwest mountains and Big Bend region. Upper-level ridging will build back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday and Saturday. The ridge axis may shift further west by Sunday but still maintains an influence across our region through the latter part of the weekend. Convective coverage should become more limited in coverage late this week and into the weekend given the building ridge, but we still anticipate at least isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop each day, particularly in the mountains. Moisture might increase on the eastern fringe of the ridge axis on Sunday to bring slightly better convective coverage (20-30%) on Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will mostly range in the 90s, except for readings in the 80s over the higher terrain and up to 104 degrees along the Rio Grande. Expect a return to above normal temperatures Friday through the weekend with temperatures heating back up to near or slightly above the century mark each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions outside of storms. A 25% to 35% chance of scattered storms at terminals, especially across Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau from beginning of period into 02Z-04Z this evening. Strongest storms may produce damaging winds with dusty outflow reducing visibilities, heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent lightning. Lower chances of storms for terminals on central and eastern Permian Basin (including MAF). Southerly winds stay 15 to 25 knots into 06Z- 09Z late this evening/early tomorrow morning in a LLJ over Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, before winds subside into the morning hours. Winds then increase 15Z-20Z tomorrow , with a 35% to 45% chance of scattered storms developing 19Z-21Z into end of period for terminals over the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau, and another accompanying risk for damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 97 74 96 / 10 10 0 10 Carlsbad 73 97 70 96 / 20 40 20 20 Dryden 76 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 73 94 72 92 / 20 30 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 69 88 66 88 / 20 20 20 20 Hobbs 70 93 68 91 / 30 30 30 20 Marfa 62 87 61 85 / 60 50 50 70 Midland Intl Airport 75 94 73 93 / 20 10 10 20 Odessa 74 93 73 92 / 20 10 10 20 Wink 74 96 72 93 / 20 30 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...94