829 FXUS64 KMAF 290446 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs near 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors! - Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Isolated storms will develop over the next few hours with the focus mainly over the Davis Mountains and Upper Trans Pecos. Much like the last few days, a storm or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and small hail. Any afternoon activity will decay overnight with temperatures only cooling into the 70s as steady southerly breezes continue. Temperatures on Monday will be 3-5 degrees cooler compared to today as an upper level low parks itself over the western US. Southwesterly flow in the upper levels brings in more moisture, increasing rain chances across the southern and central portions of the CWA. Rain amounts will vary widely, but highest amounts will be around an inch, mainly across the Davis Mountains and portions of Big Bend. Portions of the Permian Basin may not see any rain as the best chances remain in the western half of the basin. Overnight lows for many will be about the same in the low to mid 70s, but the higher elevations may enjoy rain cooled 60s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The triple digit heat for many locations will come to an end on Tuesday, thanks to the upper ridge of high pressure shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley and southeast US. Simultaneously, an upper-level storm system skirts across the Great Basin, supplying weak south to southwesterly flow aloft leading to extra cloud cover and moisture. Surface troughing along with upslope flow yields another day of isolated to scattered storms with the highest coverage being in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures decrease to near normal for late June standards in the upper 80s to upper 90s for most locations. A similar weather day is in store on Wednesday as the upper-level storm system inches eastward. As a result, similar high temperatures and rain/storm chances are forecast. Multiple days of heavy rainfall over the same areas (mainly across higher terrain) will pose a threat of localized flash flooding. Thursday into Independence Day Weekend, cluster analysis indicate a ridge of high pressure building back into the region. This will lead to drier conditions and warmer temperatures ranging from the low to upper 90s, with some locations hitting the triple digits. At this time, temperatures are not expected to be as hot compared to this past week due to guidance suggesting the ridge will be weaker. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and evening due to persistent surface troughing, upslope flow, and any disturbances within the flow aloft. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, except in areas of convection, the best chances of which look possible KFST/KPEQ/KHOB mainly Monday afternoon. Return flow will prevail, elevated during the overnight hours due to the LLJ. Plenty of high cloud will be present in SW flow aloft, but forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field, w/bases ranging from 4-5 kft AGL in the east to 11-12 kft AGL in the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 20 Carlsbad 103 75 99 72 / 0 10 10 10 Dryden 102 76 100 75 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Stockton 102 75 97 72 / 30 10 60 20 Guadalupe Pass 92 71 89 68 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 102 73 97 70 / 10 10 30 0 Marfa 94 64 90 61 / 40 30 50 60 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 98 74 / 10 0 10 30 Odessa 101 76 97 74 / 10 0 20 20 Wink 104 76 100 73 / 10 20 30 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...99