569 FXUS64 KMAF 282305 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs near 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors! - Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary hazard with the strongest storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Isolated storms will develop over the next few hours with the focus mainly over the Davis Mountains and Upper Trans Pecos. Much like the last few days, a storm or two will be capable of producing damaging winds and small hail. Any afternoon activity will decay overnight with temperatures only cooling into the 70s as steady southerly breezes continue. Temperatures on Monday will be 3-5 degrees cooler compared to today as an upper level low parks itself over the western US. Southwesterly flow in the upper levels brings in more moisture, increasing rain chances across the southern and central portions of the CWA. Rain amounts will vary widely, but highest amounts will be around an inch, mainly across the Davis Mountains and portions of Big Bend. Portions of the Permian Basin may not see any rain as the best chances remain in the western half of the basin. Overnight lows for many will be about the same in the low to mid 70s, but the higher elevations may enjoy rain cooled 60s. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The triple digit heat for many locations will come to an end on Tuesday, thanks to the upper ridge of high pressure shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley and southeast US. Simultaneously, an upper-level storm system skirts across the Great Basin, supplying weak south to southwesterly flow aloft leading to extra cloud cover and moisture. Surface troughing along with upslope flow yields another day of isolated to scattered storms with the highest coverage being in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures decrease to near normal for late June standards in the upper 80s to upper 90s for most locations. A similar weather day is in store on Wednesday as the upper-level storm system inches eastward. As a result, similar high temperatures and rain/storm chances are forecast. Multiple days of heavy rainfall over the same areas (mainly across higher terrain) will pose a threat of localized flash flooding. Thursday into Independence Day Weekend, cluster analysis indicate a ridge of high pressure building back into the region. This will lead to drier conditions and warmer temperatures ranging from the low to upper 90s, with some locations hitting the triple digits. At this time, temperatures are not expected to be as hot compared to this past week due to guidance suggesting the ridge will be weaker. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and evening due to persistent surface troughing, upslope flow, and any disturbances within the flow aloft. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR conditions outside of storms, with MVFR or lower conditions in storms. Highest chance of storms for terminals over the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau from beginning of period into 02Z-04Z this evening. Terminals impacted by stronger storms may experience damaging winds, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and hail. Southerly winds increase across central and eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau 01Z-06Z this evening, with gusts above 20 knots for terminals, before decreasing below 20 knots 07Z-11Z early tomorrow morning. An increasing chance of storms again develops 19Z into the end of the period tomorrow afternoon, with highest chances again for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 100 75 97 / 0 0 20 0 Carlsbad 75 99 72 98 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 76 100 75 97 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 75 97 72 93 / 10 60 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 71 89 68 88 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 73 97 70 94 / 10 30 0 30 Marfa 64 90 61 87 / 30 50 60 70 Midland Intl Airport 76 98 74 94 / 0 10 30 10 Odessa 76 97 74 93 / 0 20 20 20 Wink 76 100 73 96 / 20 30 10 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...94