675 FXUS64 KMAF 282100 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 300 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 137 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week, with continued dry weather conditions. - Temperatures start to cool slightly by the middle of next week, with low (generally 20-40%) rain chances returning to mainly eastern portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Current observations show everywhere is above 80 degrees this afternoon with the only exception being the Guadalupe and Davis mountains. MAF still has not reached a record high today of 87 degrees but it is well within reach with a couple more hours of heating still to come. Tomorrow's record high of 89 could also be in jeopardy, at least to tie with the current forecast very close to that mark. 12Z NBM guidance came in a bit cooler for temps both today and tomorrow but that does not seem reasonable given the upper pattern and abundant sunshine so the previous forecast is nearly unchanged. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 An upper level ridge over northwestern Mexico gets dampened by a trough moving into the West Coast providing us with westerly flow through the middle of next week. Downsloping compression will keep highs well above normal and into the 80s through at least Tuesday. At that time, the upper trough in the western United States will reach the Central Great Plains bringing a very weak cold front bringing slightly cooler temperatures that fail to even reach average. The trough also brings some rain chances to the Permian Basin beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the end of the forecast, at least according to NBM ensemble guidance. However the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are not as optimistic with the rain due to southwesterly flow ahead of the trough pushing moisture off to the east before convective instability is achieved. Regardless, rainfall amounts would be spotty and significant rainfall isn't expected. Hennig && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions persist through much of the period. Winds will generally remain light and variable. Some models indicate low clouds coming out of the southeast toward the vicinity of MAF, FST, and potentially PEQ near sunrise tomorrow. However, confidence is currently low regarding how far the cloud deck shall extend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 50 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 56 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 48 87 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 88 44 89 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 87 55 87 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 55 87 55 88 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 52 89 52 90 / 0 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...95