506 FXUS64 KMAF 300525 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 - High (65% to 75%) probability of snow and wintry mix over SE NM plains and western Permian Basin, high (60% to 80%) probability of 3 to 5 inches of snowfall over parts of Eddy County Plains through this afternoon. - Medium to high (45% to 60%) probability of snow and wintry mix over TX/NM Panhandle into Permian Basin. Wintry precipitation changing to all snow in spots with a coating to a few inches accumulation. - Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday before temperatures rebound to above normal readings late this week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 A cold late December is in store for much of the forecast area, with snow/wintry precipitation and strong winds for some regions as well. There are noticeable changes to our last forecast, mainly a faster changeover to snow over the central Permian Basin, winter storm advisory conditions farther east, and high temperatures up to 5 degrees cooler over the Permian Basin. VIS/IR and radar imagery since this morning has shown bands of light to moderate of precipitation traversing from west to east across SE NM plains into central Permian Basin. Reports this morning came in from across the Permian Basin of a rain/sleet mix, leaving coatings on grassy surfaces. Further reports from the Midland/Odessa area mid morning today came in of the rain/sleet mix changing to sleet/snow at times. Drier air advecting in from the northeast had eroded precipitation farther to the east earlier the morning, but heavier banded precipitation has since been observed over the east-central Permian Basin, allowing heavier precipitation to reach the ground and not just remain confined to the SE NM plains into western Permian Basin. Additionally, we have received reports of all snow so far today over the SE NM plains, where a few inches of snowfall has accumulated so far today. High (65% to 75%) PoPs over Eddy County Plains into Lea County and medium to high (45% to 60%) PoPs TX/NM border into western and central Permian Basin decrease to low to medium (25% to 35%) this evening, decreasing to near zero over the rest of the area by evening. Deterministic models and ensembles have remained been consistent in showing a high probability of snow accumulations 3 to 5 inches (60% to 80%) over westernmost Eddy County Plains, a medium to high (50% to 75%) probability of accumulations 1 to 2 inches over the TX/NM border into western Permian Basin (including Winkler and northwest Permian Basin, but west of Midland/Odessa), and a few tenths snow accumulation into the Midland/Odessa area. Given how NBM is now only depicting highs in the lower to mid 30s F over these regions (upper 20s to lower 30s F higher elevations of Guadalupes into westernmost Eddy County), and mid 30s to lower 40s F down to regions north of the southernmost Rio Grande basins, any snow and mixed phase precipitation accumulations today over the Permian Basin looks to be constrained mainly by the amount of forcing for ascent, rather than temperature. This might end up being the rare case of temperatures even failing to increase slowly during the day as daytime heating is counteracted by CAA. As referred to earlier, we are also seeing drier air over the east getting eroded as wet bulbing from precipitation occurs over the SE NM plains and TX/NM panhandle. This wet bulbing has brought dew point temperatures up from the single digits and teens into the 20s F for stations across SE NM plains this morning itself, and will keep temperatures from rising much where heaviest precipitation falls. While most models and observations showing precipitation remaining to the north of southern and western Culberson County and Reeves County, these regions have remained in the Winter Weather Advisory, consistent with precipitation building south of the existing bands. Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for the Guadalupes and Delawares, where a moderate probability (30% to 50%) of snow will overlap with a high (70% to 90%) probability of wind gusts up to and greater than 35 mph, and blowing snow may result in rapid visibility reductions and roads becoming impassable. Even for higher elevations where precipitation does not fall, these winds may pose risk to travel for passes and near foothills, all the way from the Guadalupes into Big Bend. Breezy east/northeast winds persist today behind the cold front that moved through last evening. Expanded winter weather products east due to trends in radar, reports of sleet, and colder than forecast temperatures, accounting for tendency for mixed phase precipitation to accumulate more easily than snow even on surfaces just a few degrees near to above freezing. This is in addition to favorable sounding profiles for wintry precipitation and light wintry precipitation and snow showers in grids over much of the area north of I-10. The next concern after precipitation tapers off this evening will be any refreezing of precipitation that fell earlier in the day. Lows fall near to below freezing north of Rio Grande basins and west of eastern Stockton Plateau into southeast Permian Basin, while remaining in the mid 30s to lower 40s F over Rio Grande basins. Coldest temperatures in the 20s F are forecast over Marfa Plateau into basins of Culberson County, western and northern SE NM plains, and northernmost Permian Basin. Where heavier snow falls over SE NM plains, there is a low (around 10%) chance of lows falling into the teens. With a high (70% to 90%) probability of at least a few hundreds of an inch liquid precipitation over the central Permian Basin and melting from earlier freezing precipitation, these low temperatures will be enough to create some slick spots on some roads, bridges, and overpasses. Will leave issuance of any products for icing from refreezing of any liquid precipitation on roads to next shift. Otherwise, lows remain above freezing over the Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, regions that still have not seen below freezing temperatures so far this winter. Tomorrow after a cold start to the morning and some icy spots on roads during the morning, the warming trend begins that will eventually bring highs and lows back to above average. However, as is usually the case, the moderating temperatures will not be quick to return, with winds first veering to the south and highs warming by 10 to 15 degrees from the previous day and lows warming by 5 to 10 degrees by the previous night. Lower clouds break up and lift by tomorrow, but skies remain partly to mostly cloudy for much of the area even as dry air characterized by dew point temperatures in the teens and 20s F stays in place. All of this translates to a 20 to 25 degree diurnal range, meaning highs in the lower to mid 50s F north of Presidio Valley into Big Bend, lower to mid 40s F where any remnant snowpack hasn't fully melted over the SE NM plains and Guadalupes, and lows near to below freezing Marfa Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains and central and northern Permian Basin, above freezing elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Upper-level ridging is anticipated to build over west Texas and southeast New Mexico by midweek, with periods of zonal flow aloft during the latter part of the week/weekend. This means that warmer and drier weather is on the way. Afternoon highs in the 60s are forecast for most on Wednesday before most areas warm into the 70s each afternoon from Thursday onward. With the exception of Wednesday night, overnight lows in the 40s and 50s can be expected. Greening && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 All locations are VFR and most should remain so over the next 24 hours. CNM and MAF could see MVFR or IFR conditions before 12Z and will closely monitor. All sites should be VFR by 18Z. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 28 55 29 63 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 26 46 27 54 / 40 0 0 0 Dryden 38 57 37 67 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 34 59 38 65 / 20 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 27 47 35 56 / 30 0 0 0 Hobbs 26 48 26 59 / 30 0 0 0 Marfa 25 54 29 66 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 31 53 32 62 / 30 0 0 0 Odessa 31 53 33 61 / 40 0 0 0 Wink 29 53 30 61 / 30 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Andrews- Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving- Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler. NM...Blizzard Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...10