351 FXUS64 KLZK 280531 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 -Some fog possible this morning -Elevated wildfire threat into Saturday due to low afternoon humidity -Rain chances increasing Sunday into Monday -A more persistent wet pattern setting up for portions of the state later next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 A weak front dropped south through the state on Thu evening...triggering some isolated convection along this boundary. This convection has since moved SE of AR...with light NRLY winds noted behind the front. A clearing sky combined with the lighter winds may create some patchy fog this morning. There may even be some patchy dense fog at times...mainly under areas that saw rainfall on Thu afternoon/evening. Have issued a Dense Fog Adv for areas that have the best potential for seeing more persistent and widespread low VIS. Somewhat drier air will settle across the state this Fri as weak SFC high pressure settles across the region. Even with the passage of the front...a mostly clear sky will still allow temps to warm above normal once again this Fri afternoon...with highs in the 70s for many locations. While NW flow aloft will persist...even warmer conditions are expected for Sat as SRLY SFC flow increases with the SFC high shifting east. An increased threat for wildfires may develop both days with these above normal conditions...and persistent dry air remaining. Winds should remain below any critical fire levels both days however. There are some indications that a front may drop south/SW into the state on Sun...with some increased chances for rainfall returning to the forecast...as well as some cooler conditions. This front looks to settle across some portion of the state by Mon...with some continued chances for rain for portions of the state. By late Mon into Tue...flow aloft looks to transition to more SWRLY over the region...with SRLY SFC flow increasing. Temps will warm back above normal as a result...but will also see increasing moisture levels across the region. With persistent SW flow aloft and increasing moisture...chances for rainfall will become more common in the middle to latter half of next week as multiple upper waves may pass over the region. A frontal boundary looks to also be draped somewhere over the region...providing a focus for areas of convection and some significant rainfall later next week. Many questions arise however on details this far out...such as where the SFC boundary may be...and timing of individual waves. Latest guidance suggests best potential for widespread heavy rainfall over the NWRN portion of the state...and points further NW. Will see how things evolve in the coming days and refine the forecast accordingly as new data is analyzed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 VFR conds are expected overnight with MVFR VIS possible between 08/09z through 13/14z across Cntrl/Srn terminals. Conds should quickly improve back to VFR at all terminals and light winds should increase out of the S/SW between 10 and 20 kts at most locations on Sat afternoon. High clouds should increase late, with mentions of VCSH at Nrn sites with the approach of weak frontal boundary. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the forecast period. As was the case last night, some fog is possible that could lead to impacts across central and southern terminals, but tonight it is expected to be localized. Light south to southwest winds will prevail with some afternoon gusts up to 20 kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 77 47 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 76 49 77 47 / 0 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 75 48 77 55 / 0 0 0 20 Little Rock AR 74 48 78 53 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 75 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 77 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 20 Mountain Home AR 75 47 77 47 / 0 10 10 10 Newport AR 73 48 74 50 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 74 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 76 47 79 52 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 73 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 72 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70