700 FXUS61 KLWX 301531 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1031 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada while its associated upper-level trough remains overhead today. An upper- level disturbance will pass through late tonight into Wednesday morning before another upper-level disturbance and its reinforcing cold front move through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure will briefly return for Friday before low pressure passes nearby or to our south Saturday. High pressure will return for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Closed low pressure will remain over eastern Canada today and its associated upper-level trough will remain overhead during this time. A strong pressure gradient between the low over eastern Canada and high pressure over the central CONUS will continue to usher in gusty west to northwest winds along with cold conditions. The strongest gradient early this morning along with the strongest wind field aloft appear to be near and northeast of the Potomac River as well as the higher elevations in the Blue Ridge Mountains/Potomac and Allegheny Highlands. The High Wind Warning continues for the Allegheny Ridge, but was dropped on the Blue Ridge, as trends have been down this morning. Highest gusts on the Blue Ridge since midnight were around 30-40 mph. The Wind Advisory continues for most other locations generally along and north of I-70, as well as northern VA and eastern WV. Areas further south were dropped as the trend has been down this morning overall. Wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph are most likely in the advised areas with wind gusts around 60 mph in the High Wind Warning. Elsewhere, winds have subsided a bit but it will remain blustery today, with gusts early on around 30-40 mph, dropping into the 20-30 mph range by this afternoon. For this afternoon, the gradient will weaken a little as the low slowly moves off to the northeast. This will likely allow winds to fall below warning/advisory thresholds, but it will remain blustery and cold. Additional snow showers are likely out west this morning, even though the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire. However, additional accumulations should be on the lighter side. Having that been said, areas of blowing snow will continue through this afternoon into tonight, making travel difficult to dangerous at times. A few flurries and snow showers have spilled east of the mountains this morning, and even as far east as the metros. This could continue into early this afternoon. Any accumulation should be light due to plenty of low-level dry air and a downsloping flow. The winds will continue to gradually subside tonight as the gradient weakens along with the loss of mixing. An upper-level disturbance in the northern stream will move into the area late tonight. This system will lack moisture, but most guidance shows upward motion in the mid-levels that is aligned with saturation and the DGZ. This will obviously fight low-level dry air, but flurries and perhaps even a period of light snow cannot be ruled out. As of now, it appears that the best chance will be near/west of the Allegheny Front and also across our eastern areas (northeast Maryland and perhaps approaching the Baltimore and DC metro areas into southern Maryland). Increased POPS a bit from the NBM across these areas and added scattered flurries as well. If accumulating snow does occur, even light amounts would have an impact due to the very cold conditions and this would impact the Wednesday morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level disturbance will depart Wednesday morning and any flurries or light snow should dissipate by mid-morning, except for along/west of the Allegheny Front where some snow showers may linger. Dry and chilly conditions are expected for most areas later Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening behind the departing upper-level disturbance. Another upper-level disturbance in the northern stream along with a reinforcing cold front will pass through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This system will be a little stronger, despite limited moisture. Another period of light snow or flurries are possible, and again with cold conditions any light accumulation may be impactful. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level wind will cause snow accumulation. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for these areas. The combination of the upslope flow, strong mid-level forcing and saturation within the DGZ along with instability and high SLR's suggest that significant accumulation is possible (around 6" possible). The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for those areas. High pressure will build overhead behind this system later Thursday through Thursday night, bringing more dry and cold conditions. Gusty northwest winds Thursday into Thursday evening will make it feel blustery as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move offshore Friday and a reinforcing cold front will pass through the area Friday night into Saturday while low pressure passes by to the south. Friday afternoon will be a little milder ahead of the front. The most likely scenario for the weekend into early next week is for dry and seasonal conditions with the low remaining far enough to the south. However, if the low tracks farther north, then a period of rain or wintry precipitation could occur Saturday. Will continue to monitor. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Gusty northwest winds will continue through this morning before gradually diminishing this afternoon into tonight. Gusts around 35 to 45 knots are most likely into this afternoon (strongest winds most likely through this morning). Winds will diminish further tonight. A period of light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out late tonight into Thursday morning (around 9Z through 14Z). This is not reflected in the latest TAF with probs around 20%, but MVFR vsbys are possible in some light snow during this time. Any accumulation will be light, but with it being cold it would only take light accumulations for impact. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Another upper-level disturbance may bring a period of light snow or flurries late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR vsbys are possible during this time and any light accumulation may have impact due to the cold conditions. VFR conditions are expected later Thursday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through today. A Gale Warning remains in effect until 6 AM for all of the waters. For the rest of today, the strongest winds will most likely be over the upper Tidal Potomac River and northern Chesapeake Bay. A Gale Warning continues through this afternoon for these areas (gusts around 35 to 40 kts) and an SCA is in effect for areas to the south. Even across these areas, gusts around 30 knots are expected and a few gusts around 35 knots cannot be ruled out. Winds will continue to gradually diminish over the waters tonight, but an SCA is in effect for all of the waters this evening and for the Bay/lower Tidal Potomac River overnight. An SCA is in effect for the waters Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front and the SCA will likely be needed Wednesday night as well. The cold front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday and more gusty northwest winds are expected behind the cold front. An SCA will likely be needed for the waters with gusts around 30 knots possible. High pressure will build overhead later Thursday night into Friday, bringing lighter winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A strong and persistent offshore flow is expected through tonight. Tidal blowout conditions are possible through tonight. A Low Water Advisory may be needed. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for MDZ003>006-008-011-505- 507-508. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday for MDZ008. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ501-502- 509-510. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for MDZ509-510. VA...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ028-031. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ503-504. WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ050>053-055. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ501>506. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for WVZ501-503-505. MARINE...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ530. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>532-535- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541>543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...BJL/CJL SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL MARINE...BJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL