043 FXUS64 KLUB 292334 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible through this evening. Strong winds are the greatest hazard. - Storm chances continue through mid-week. - Generally warm temperatures will continue into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 As was the case yesterday, a dryline will setup today, generally north and west of I-27. Much of day will remain capped under the influence of a strong upper ridge strengthening over the eastern US. Shortwave activity should hold off until later this evening as a trough digs into central California. Low-level shear will also not ramp up until the evening hours, however with later sunsets this time of year, there should still be enough instability combined with this forcing as well as southerly moisture advection between the two aforementioned features, which will lead to convective initiation along the dryline. All CAMs indicate convection lasting into the early morning hours on Tuesday. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms could produce strong winds and/or downbursts. Breezy southerly winds will persist today, with highs ranging from the low 90s to low triple-digits off the Caprock. Winds will remain elevated overnight again bringing very mild Tuesday morning lows in the 70s for much of the area. The aforementioned upper trough will become cutoff from the main flow pattern and become slightly more shallow as it tracks farther south. Nonetheless, subtle height falls will lead to highs cooling around 3- 5 degrees from today. Another weak dryline will develop, although slightly farther to the north and west than the one today. Again, greatest forcing will not occur until the evening hours which is when most storms would initiate. These should generally remain west of I-27, with strong winds being the greatest threat. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The upper trough to our west will become fully absorbed back into the main flow pattern on Wednesday. Although southerly winds will remain breezy, upper heights will fall further as the broad ridge to the east will begin to weaken. As such, high temperatures will be relatively "cooler," near 90 on the Caprock and mid-to-upper 90s off the Caprock. A dryline will develop during the afternoon/evening across northeastern New Mexico and additional upper waves will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, mainly over the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. As with previous days, winds look to be the main hazard. Storm chances appear to diminish Thursday and Friday in the absence of any potent shortwaves or significant jets, so it looks to be a hot and dry 4th of July at this point. Models significantly diverge thereafter with GFS indicating an upper low becoming cutoff over the Great Plains leading to slightly higher storm chances for our area, whereas ECMWF only shows a shallow trough. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period with relatively strong south winds continuing. Scattered TSRA remain west of the terminals at 23z, with a low chance of convective impacts in the form of strong and erratic wind gusts to KLBB and KPVW through the rest of this evening. There is a low chance of a brief period of MVFR CIGs mainly at KLBB early Tuesday morning, but probability of occurrence is too low for TAF mention at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30