184 FXUS64 KLUB 290506 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening which could produce strong wind gusts. - Thunderstorm chances return each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly on the Caprock. - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions expected this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The dryline that stalled partway through the forecast areas today has mostly retreated from the region. Current surface dew point observations show the dryline now spans across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle into southeastern NM. Surface flow has shifted to the south to southeast ahead of the dryline, filling in some moisture allowing dew points to recover to the upper 50s to 60s. Current radar imagery shows some showers moving in across portions of the South Plains, however very little shear is hindering any updraft development, effectively killing these storms before they can ramp up to severe. A couple of outflow boundaries from this evening storms can be seen pushing through the forecast area. There is a small chance for thunderstorms to develop with these outflows, however the chance is low. You may only see gusty winds up to 45 mph with these outflows. Storms, although disappointing tonight, remain possible through midnight. Breezy southerly winds are expected to prevail through the overnight hours making it another warm night with lows in the 70s expected across the region. On the upper levels, an upper ridge will sit across southeastern CONUS. At the same time, an upper trough will amplify down the coast of California. With the CWA sitting between the two disturbances, flow aloft will vary from south to southwest through Monday. Decent moisture is expected in the mid to upper levels as the southwesterly flow continues to usher in subtropical moisture overhead. Monday will be the beginning of a multi-day "cool" down as the upper pattern will allow for slight height decreases. Areas on the Caprock will get a break from the triple digit temperatures, however a surface trough across the Central Plains will sustain breezy southerly winds, therefore highs will still be in the upper 90s. Sadly, for areas on the Caprock, you can still expect triple digit temperatures with some localized areas across the southern Rolling Plains seeing borderline Heat Advisory temperatures. Another round of thunderstorms is expected late Monday afternoon through the evening. The set up will be very similar to this evening, however we saw how that panned out. The dryline is expected to push back eastward through the first half of Monday before setting up in the vicinity of the I-27 corridor. Convergence along the dryline will aide in thunderstorm development. CAMs indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across eastern portions on the Caprock before expanding off the Caprock. Severe potential with these storms will be low. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be short-lived, very similar to this evening, with weak shear values (around 15 m/s) hindering thunderstorm growth. However, with inverted-v soundings indicating elevated thunderstorms, can expect some gusty winds around 45 to 50 mph. Gusty outflow boundaries will also be possible, however are expected to remain below severe wind criteria. Downbursts will be possible with DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Although the potential for severe is low, a severe thunderstorm or two with up to quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Any thunderstorms are expected to clear out of the CWA before midnight, leaving the rest of the night quiet with lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The long term forecast will start off with a hot Tuesday with thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will remain stagnant. The upper trough off the coast of California will push east spanning across much of western CONUS. This regime will keep moist southwesterly flow overhead. An embedded shortwave passing over the region will bring thunderstorm chances through the afternoon and evening. A similar set up is expected for Wednesday with a secondary embedded shortwave as the upper trough continues to dominate western CONUS and the upper ridging over southeastern CONUS. Similar temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 90s across much of the region, however some areas across the southern Rolling Plains could still see triple digits. An upper pattern change will slightly warm temperatures and dry out conditions through the weekend. The upper trough will deamplify as the upper ridging builds back west across our region. Height increases due to the ridging will increase temperatures back into the triple digits as well as subsidence will put an end to our daily thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Breezy southerly winds will continue for the entire TAF period for all TAF sites. Low CIGS will attempt to make a run at the region early Monday morning from the south but are expected to remain just south of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible late Monday afternoon but confidence in coverage and timing is too low to mention in the TAF at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01