243 FXUS64 KLUB 301731 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1131 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Breezy westerly winds up to 30 mph expected across the Caprock New Year's day. - Warm and dry conditions continue through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 An elongated upper ridge will prevail over western CONUS through the rest of today before gradually flattening through the end of day Wednesday. On the surface, southwesterly flow will continue through tonight as our region sits between surface ridging to the southeast and a surface low over north central NM. Sunny skies and southwesterly winds will warm temperatures up to the upper 50s for much of the region today. Tonight will be another cold one with light westerly winds and mostly clear skies. Lows tonight, although warmer than last night, will be in the 20s for much of the region with areas over southern Rolling Plains seeing lows in the lower 30s. A lee side low will develop over Colorado during the day Wednesday, maintaining southwesterly surface flow. Similar to today, southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies will keep the warming trend into New Years Eve with highs in the 60s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A warm and breezy New Year's Day will start off the long term forecast. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will continue to flatten overnight Wednesday through early Thursday morning. At the same time, an upper low will push onshore over SoCal. Mostly cloudy skies will begin to fill in early New Year's Day as this upper level set up fills in moisture to the mid-to-upper levels. A lee surface low will develop over northern NM early Thursday before tracking southeast across portions of our region. The tightening in the pressure gradient from this low will bring breezy westerly winds Thursday afternoon, especially on the Caprock. NBM, similar to previous forecast, is underestimating wind speeds, therefore increased using NBM75th. Wind speeds up to 30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph will be possible. Despite the mostly cloudy skies, the warming trend will persist New Year's Day due to the strong westerly winds with highs reaching the 70s for much of the region. The unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through the weekend as the aforementioned upper low is absorbed in northern flow and upper ridging builds in over the Four Corners region through the end of the week before slightly shifting east over the region to start off next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR will continue to prevail this TAF cycle, with only the thinnest of high clouds (cirrus) streaming by. Southwesterly winds sustained at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will weaken this evening, becoming somewhat variable in direction and remaining light through Wednesday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...23