133 FXUS64 KLUB 301058 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 458 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Sunny and warmer today with temperatures warming back near average for this time of year. - Westerly winds between 20-30 mph are forecast across the Caprock on New Year's Day. - Warm weather will continue through the first weekend of the New Year. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Broad surface ridging in place over the region will result in quite the chilly morning, as clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s by sunrise, which will be the coldest lows our area has seen since the beginning of December. Dry northwest flow aloft will persist overhead throughout the day as mid/upper level ridging builds to our west over the Four Corners, resulting in largely neutral height tendencies aloft. Still, a return of southwesterly low level flow as surface ridging shifts to our south will result in a notable warm up compared to yesterday as highs return to the mid 50s near 60, about normal for this time of year. Tonight will be another chilly one with clear skies and continued light winds, with lows again expected to range from the upper teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with only a few minor tweaks performed with this package. At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a bifurcated jet stream embedded within a high-amplitude ridge shifting eastward over the central U.S., with a cut-off low previously rotating offshore Baja Sur becoming absorbed into the southern-stream tranche of the ridge. Temperatures will warm into lower-middle 60s area-wide, as diffuse surface troughing remains intact in W TX. The large-scale subsidence layer will continue to erode Wednesday, but it will keep mixing heights shallow, at or less than 850 mb, which will offset any additional warming from occurring. Thick overcast is forecast to advect over the CWA Thursday, as the decayed cut-off low will have been absorbed into the southern-stream split of the large-scale ridge, with the leading shortwave trough ejecting over the Desert Southwest. The net result of this will dampen the amplitude of the southern-stream ridge into a quasi-zonal state, with a leading wave of DPVA propagating over W TX Thursday. Cyclogenesis will occur beneath the ejecting shortwave perturbation near the Raton Mesa, and winds were raised to align with the NBM 75th percentile, which is closer to the upper-bound of the recent MOS guidance. Westerly winds between 20-30 mph are forecast Thursday across the Caprock, with winds diminishing in the Rolling Plains due to indications of secondary cyclogenesis evolving as the surface trough translates eastward into the TX Big Country. Sprinkles will be possible across the Caprock as ceilings descend to near or slightly below 10 kft AGL Thursday afternoon, but a mention in the official forecast has been withheld with this forecast. Despite the brisk-to-strong, westerly winds Thursday, the thick overcast will keep fire weather concerns at bay due to RH minima near 30 percent in congruence with the strongest winds, with additional moistening to follow the Pacific cold front prior to sunset. Westerly winds will remain intact overnight into Friday following the Pacific cold front, with brisk winds veering northwestward during the day Friday as the backside of the trough emerges over W TX. A weakening cold front is then forecast to move in from the central Great Plains Friday night, but it will have little effect on temperatures, with above-normal highs forecast through the first weekend of the New Year. PoPs remain NIL otherwise for the next week. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period. Low CIGS and visbys are expected to remain west of the terminals this morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...01