795 FXUS63 KLSX 280447 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1047 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to Elevated Fire Danger on Saturday across northeastern Missouri, west-central Illinois, and the Ozarks. - A winter weather system will bring snow and impacts to areas north of I-70 Sunday night into Monday morning. A wintry mix to rain is expected along and south of I-70. - Multiple rounds of soaking rainfall are expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Broad troughing is present over a majority of the CONUS today, with the Middle Mississippi Valley being beneath northwesterly flow. A shortwave within this flow is associated with a low traversing southern Canada and the Northern Great Lakes region, and it's attendant cold front can be seen in surface observations extending from Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa and Kansas. The precipitation and even cloud-free nature of this front is reflective of how dry the boundary layer is across much of the region, with RH locally being roughly 30% or lower. Thanks to the tight pressure gradient caused by the low, winds have been gusting out of the southwest, further warming temperatures thanks to downsloping off the Ozarks. This all supports our anomalously warm day today, and the Red Flag Warning remains on track. Outdoor burning continues to be strongly discouraged through this evening. The aforementioned cold front drops through the CWA this evening and tonight, causing winds to become light and variable. The post- frontal air mass will lack bite thanks to weak cold air advection and it will quickly slide through the Midwest, leading to winds remaining variable through the night into Saturday morning. A weak surface reflection moving eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley through the day Saturday will shift winds southerly for areas along and south of Highway 36/I-72, leading to another day of well above-normal temperatures for much of the area. These warm conditions paired with a still dry boundary layer and breezy conditions will lead to another day of Elevated Fire Danger across portions of northeastern Missouri, west-central Illinois, and the Ozarks. The surface reflection and another front dropping through region has a low chance (~20%) of forcing light rainfall mainly along and west of the Mississippi River during the late morning and afternoon. This second cold front will pack more of a punch due to its Arctic nature, with temperatures Saturday night falling below freezing for areas along and north of I-70. Elmore && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 The main focus for Sunday continues to be a weak wave aloft inducing cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains and Mid-South late Sunday into Monday. Guidance remains stubbornly spread, making specifics uncertain. Confidence is at least high in timing, as while the NAM continues to be an outlier with a Monday morning onset, a majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance favors precipitation spreading eastward Sunday evening and dissipating by noon on Monday. Wintry precipitation, with confidence high in it being snow, is expected north of I-70 where temperatures through the lower atmosphere are expected to be below freezing. Here, QPF among guidance consensus continues to trend slightly downward, and there is concern that initially warm ground temperatures paired with near freezing surface temperatures may at least cut into accumulation potential at first. However, brief periods of lift focused within the dendritic growth zone north of I-70 will favor short lived bursts of greater snowfall rates that will overcome the previously mentioned limiting factors to produce accumulating snowfall. Generally, 1-2" of snowfall is expected, with localized areas seeing as much as 4". Along and south of the I-70 corridor, surface temperatures are forecast to be right at or just above freezing, and vertical profiles show a warm nose occasionally nudging in. Rain to a rain/snow mix would result, and brief periods of freezing rain would result along I-70 for locations where surface temperatures are subfreezing and a warm nose develops aloft. However, the chance for impacts is low, as ground/pavement temperatures will limit accumulations mainly to elevated and grassy surfaces. While this round of precipitation dissipates by mid-day Monday, it is the first of several expected through the week. Guidance consensus is that quazi-zonal to increasingly northwesterly flow will prevail through the upcoming workweek, allowing for multiple disturbances to pass through the region. These disturbances will produce additional rounds of precipitation starting as soon as Monday night and early Tuesday. The 25th percentile of global ensemble members keeps temperatures right at or above freezing through this period, leading to high confidence in temperatures being warm enough to support mostly rain. In fact, as warmth builds toward the end of the week, the chance for thunderstorms increases. While some AI/ML-based guidance produces low probabilities for severe thunderstorms by the end of the week, favorable instability and shear space for severe storms among deterministic guidance has very little if any overlap, leading to very low confidence in this threat. Elmore && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only exception will be a low chance (20-30%) for light rain at COU/JEF between 15-21Z and the St. Louis metro terminals between 20-24Z. Confidence remains too low at this point to include in TAFs. Otherwise, northerly winds will slowly back to south to southeast by Saturday afternoon before turning out of the north behind another cold front on Saturday evening. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX