715 

FXUS63 KLSX 301746

AFDLSX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

1146 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry weather is expected into early next week.



- Temperatures will gradually warm up into the weekend, though by 

  how much is uncertain.





&&



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)

Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Low clouds have finally moved out of the area early this morning, 

though this will be short lived as satellite is showing additional 

mid and high clouds dropping south out of the Upper Midwest.  These 

clouds are associated with a subtle shortwave trough that is 

embedded within the well established northwest flow over our area. 

This trough will just bring an increase in clouds today with any 

precipitation staying well to our northeast through tonight.  



A weak surface ridge over the eastern Plains is approaching the area 

which has allowed the winds to finally decrease.  We will still see 

wind chills in the single digits this morning as lows fall into the 

teens.  Then the winds will turn out of the west and then southwest 

by this afternoon as the ridge moves through the area which will 

allow temperatures to climb back into the 30s today.  Lows will fall 

back into the 20s tonight.



Britt



&&



.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Monday)

Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



The rest of the week into early next week looks to be mainly dry as 

we will remain cut off the the Gulf with no significant storm 

systems moving through Missouri or Illinois.   Model guidance is in 

generally good agreement that the northwest flow overhead will 

remain into the weekend as a deep low stays over the Hudson Bay. 

However, the western CONUS ridge will deamplify bringing quasi-zonal 

flow over the Midwest by early next week which is when the LREF is 

showing a increasing spread in model solutions.  Even with this 

spread, less than 15% of the LREF members are producing 

precipitation over the area through next Tuesday.



The deterministic guidance is showing another trough moving through 

the Great Lakes Wednesday night that will bring another cold front 

through the CWA.  The cold air advection behind this front is not 

strong, and highs Friday into Sunday will be similar to what they 

were ahead of the front.  By next week, forecast highs are above 

normal but the NBM IQR is 10 degrees or greater reflecting the above 

mentioned spread.



Britt



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)

Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



VFR flight conditions and light westerly flow is expected to

prevail through the period.



Carney



&&



.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

IL...None.

&&



$$



WFO LSX