148 FXUS66 KLOX 291919 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1219 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .SYNOPSIS...29/829 AM. Low clouds will linger each night/morning along the coast and in coastal valleys with the potential for some very light drizzle. Falling heights will keep temperatures well below normal through the middle of the week. Temperatures will begin to warm by Thursday, with many valley locations warming into the 90s again by early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...29/1211 PM. A closed low will track southward through CA today before lifting into NV early Tuesday and transitioning to an open trough. The pressure gradient will tighten today and subsequent days as shortwaves swing through, resulting in breezy conditions, especially in the Antelope Valley/Foothills and the San Luis Obispo Valley. No wind highlights are planned at this time as winds look to remain sub-Advisory or very marginal in localized areas in these regions. Various high resolution models, as well as the National Blend, maintain broad coverage of 25 to 35 mph wind gusts this afternoon with a relatively smaller region of 35 to 40 or so mph gusts, especially across the Foothills. The National Blend max gust for today and Tuesday is generally 38 to 44 mph across a relatively small portion of the aforementioned regions. Daytime temperatures will remain very stable, running below climatological norms through mid-week. Widespread highs will range the 70s with 80s in the valleys. Temperatures will then warm beginning Thursday into the next week. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...29/1209 PM. Temperatures will continue warming by another several degrees on on Friday and warm to within a few degrees on either side of normal on Saturday. Ensembles indicate a pattern change come next weekend, although confidence in the temperature and wind forecast next week is moderate. Ensembles differ on the upper-level details, specifically the strength of the ridge. While Saturday, July 4th won't be the warmest day of the extended period, some locations could warm into the high 90s. The National Blend indicates over a 90% chance of 90 plus degrees across the Antelope Valley on the 4th while 50% to 60% chance across the San Luis Obispo Valley. The likelihood of reaching 85 degrees is much more widespread. Some models feature another PacNW low early next week while others maintain some magnitude of high pressure or a zonal regime heading into the middle of next week. Temperatures look to return to normal or slightly above with upper 80s to low 90s in the forecast again by early next week. Additionally, offshore sundowner winds could develop early next week along the Santa Barbara coast. && .AVIATION...29/1723Z. At 17Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of the weak inversion was 6000 ft with a temperature of 15 Celsius. High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD KWJF. 60% chance of MVFR ceilings at KPRB Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence (50+% chance) in ceilings at all other airports for tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category. KLAX...High confidence in ceilings forming tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). High confidence in any easterly wind staying under 6 knots. KBUR...High confidence in ceilings tonight into Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence in timing (+/- 3 hours) and flight categories (+/- 1 category). && .MARINE...29/225 AM. High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing for the outer waters from the Central Coast through San Nicolas Island through this morning, with a 50% chance of forming again later this afternoon and tonight. Chances decrease Tuesday through Thursday. Other than a 30% chance of SCA winds over the western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and evening through Tuesday, high confidence in conditions staying under SCA for the rest of the waters. All waters will see short-period choppy seas into early next week. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Cropp AVIATION...SF MARINE...SF/RS/RK SYNOPSIS...Cropp weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox