847 FXUS66 KLOX 281737 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 937 AM PST Sat Feb 28 2026 UPDATED MARINE SECTION .SYNOPSIS...28/314 AM. Coasts and coastal valleys will cool slightly while interior areas will warm today. Then a significant cooling trend is on tap for Sunday and Monday. There is potential for a period of fairly significant winds across the area as early as Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...28/912 AM. ***UPDATE*** Most areas are seeing temperatures trending noticeably down from 24 hours ago over coastal and valley areas, with mountains and hilly areas trending similar to warmer. This is inline with the current forecast as the upper level high starts to weaken and surface pressure gradients start trending onshore. With all that said, while numeric values will be down a bit over many areas, it will still be a very warm day. High temperatures are on track to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Calendar day records are a little lower than yesterday, so a few records may be broken with Burbank and Woodland Hills the most likely ones to fall There is a chance of reaching records at Downtown Los Angeles, Long Beach, UCLA, Lancaster, Palmdale, and Sandberg. The rest of the records look fairly safe. The earlier high clouds are mostly done for today. Winds look fairly light. ***From Previous Discussion*** Another very warm day region-wide will close out February. Skies will feature high clouds through much of the day and the ridge responsible for several broken temperatures yesterday will begin to flatten out. Offshore flow will be weaker, then winds will quickly turn onshore. As a result, highs at the coasts will cool by several degrees, with highs topping out in the mid 70’s to low 80’s. Slightly less cooling will occur across the coastal valleys, and downsloping onshore flow will warm the interior by several degrees. There are a handful of locations across the forecast area that will flirt with record high temperatures, namely in the San Fernando and Antelope Valleys. There is very good agreement amongst ensembles that a weak trough will approach northern California Sunday and move through the state through the beginning of the week. In response, significant cooling will take place Sunday with additional cooling on Monday, bringing us back to near normal temperatures with most of the region topping out in the 60’s and 70’s. Any widespread precipitation will remain well north of us, however, upslope winds may generate some light rain across the northern slopes late Sunday into Monday. As previously mentioned, offshore flow will be weaker this morning, then a reversal to onshore flow will bring widespread gusty west to southwest winds to the area today and Sunday. There is a moderate chance for wind advisories to be needed Sunday. Windiest locations will be the Antelope Valley, AV Foothills, the northern Ventura County Mountains, and the western San Gabriels. Sundowner winds will return late tonight and increase in strength Sunday, reaching near advisory levels into Monday morning across southern Santa Barbara County. The overall wind pattern will turn more northwest Monday as the upper level trough exits California to the east. Chances for additional wind advisories on Monday are similar to Sunday’s probabilities. Dense fog may become an issue at immediate coastal sites along the Central Coast and southern Los Angeles County late tonight into Sunday morning, but confidence is low. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/314 AM. A pop up ridge will elevate temperatures a few degrees Tuesday, with little change Wednesday. The real focus in the extended is the potential for a fairly sharp trough (inside slider) to swing down across the western CONUS southwest into southern California sometime from the middle to late next week. There is quite a bit of disagreement in terms of timing and placement of this trough. The EC, ECAI, AIGFS and their respective ensembles (plus the GEFS) keep the placement of the trough more to the east than the GFS 00Z run, which barrels the trough through SoCal, then cuts off just off the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. While the majority of solutions are dry, the cut off nature shown by GFS 00Z would likely result in rain and mountain snow as early as next Friday, March 6th. Healthy K Indices and Mid Level Lapse Rates would support the potential for convection in this cutoff low scenario. It’s worth noting again that the GFS is the OUTLIER amongst models at the moment, but this is certainly worth following. What appears to be likely regardless of the scenario that comes to fruition is a period of widespread advisory level winds across the region, with a low to moderate chance for high wind warnings to be needed across the mountains, as there is a good amount of upper level support in each scenario. Keeping the uncertainty in the timing and placement of the upper level trough in mind, winds appear to begin increasing sometime Wednesday and will continue at least into the weekend. Stay tuned to the forecast for future details. && .AVIATION...28/1736Z. At 1632Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top at 1900 ft and a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF). Moderate confidence for remaining sites. Marine layer stratus will return to some coastal sites overnight into Sunday morning. VLIFR to LIFR conditions will be common. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums off by one cat - if CIGs arrive. Sites with highest chances that CIGs do not arrive: KCMA (50+%), KSBA (40%), KOXR (35%), KSMO (25%). All other sites with CIGs forecasted have a greater than 70% chance of verifying. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of CIGs may be off +/- 3 hours from current forecast. There is a 30% chance of conditions falling to VLIFR (OVC001-002 with 1/4SM) from 01/08Z to 01/16Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. No wind impacts expected. && .MARINE...28/829 AM. For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will develop across the waters between Point Conception and San Nicolas island Saturday evening. These winds will continue and increase some through the weekend. This trend will persist into Monday, resulting in a moderate chance (30-40%) of Gale Force wind gusts near the Channel islands during the afternoon and evening. By Tuesday, the axis of SCA level NW winds will shift westward and expand including the northern waters. These winds will strengthen significantly bringing very hazardous conditions Wednesday into Friday morning. There is a likely chance (60-70%) of GALES during this timeframe. For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions will remain below SCA levels through at least Sunday morning. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NW winds that afternoon and evening. SCA winds are very likely (60-90%) Monday thru at least Thursday. There is a moderate chance (30-40%) for GALES Wednesday/Thursday. For the inner waters south of Point Conception, winds may briefly reach SCA levels (21kts) this evening through Sunday morning across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. By Sunday afternoon, SCA level W of 20-25 kt will become widespread across the channel. These winds will strengthen into the nighttime. Strongest Monday afternoon and evening with a moderate chance (30-40%) of GALE Force wind gusts across western/southern portions. Reduction of winds to possible sub-SCA is possible Tuesday morning. SCA winds will likely stay confined to western portions through early Wednesday morning. Thereafter through Friday morning SCA winds are likely across most if not all of the channel. There is a moderate chance (30%) for GALES across western/southern portions during this timeframe. Moderate chances for SCA conditions across at least western portions of PZZ655 Sunday and Monday, & possible more widespread on Thursday. A lull below SCA levels looks likely Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...BL/RK AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...BL weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox