172 FXUS66 KLOX 300525 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 925 PM PST Mon Dec 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...29/1258 PM. The weather will be dry and warmer across the region through Tuesday with gusty Santa Ana winds at times. The next storm will move into the area from the south Wednesday with periods of rain through at least Saturday, heaviest Wednesday night into New Years Day. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...29/801 PM. ***UPDATE*** Pressure gradients remained strongly offshore both to the N and E this evening. As of 03Z, the LAX-DAG gradient was -6.4 mb while the LAX-BFL gradient was -5.2 mb. These offshore gradients have kept strong and gusty winds going this evening for many of the usual wind-prone areas of VTU/L.A. Counties. Fairly widespread gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range persisted and are not expected to let up that much overnight. In fact, the 00Z NAM was showing a burst of stronger winds later this evening and again early Tuesday morning. As a result, have extended the Wind Advisories through 3 PM Tue. However, winds could diminish below Advisories a little earlier than that on Tue, and if that is the case the Advisories could be cancelled early. Remainder of forecast is on track. Do not anticipate any further zones updates this evening. ***From Previous Discussion*** Temperatures had warmed up today at lower elevations with the downslope winds with highs in the low to mid 70s in the warmest areas. Expecting to see some additional warming Tuesday, especially across the interior due to the cold air mass shifting eastward. Elsewhere temperatures will be about the same as today. A return to wet weather is expected Wednesday as moisture from off the coast of Mexico gets pulled up into southern California. Onset time is still in question, but no later than Wednesday evening. Some light rain is possible as early as Wednesday morning, especially far western areas as the hi res models show the initial trajectory farther to the west over the Channel Islands and Central Coast, but then shifting east during the afternoon and evening. Precipitable waters rise quickly Wednesday night, rising to between 1.25 and 1.5" through New Years Day. This will be the period of heaviest rainfall with this storm, but likely still at least 50% lighter than the last event. Will have a better estimate on specific rainfall rates by Tuesday as the storm moves into the higher res models, but based on the lower res models overall rain rates should peak at around 0.5" per hour, with isolated rates up to 0.75" per hour. The higher rates will again be south of Pt Conception and mostly in the upslope areas. So the chances of a wet New Years Parade, and including the night before when people camp out before the parade, are extremely high, 80-90% at this point. The last wet New Year's parade was in 2006. Given the amount of rain that recently fell, the expected rain rates and amounts with this system will likely generate more runoff than usual and flood watches will be strongly considered over the next 24 hours, particularly in light of the slight risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. Rain totals through Thursday south of Pt Conception are expected to be 1-2.5" coast and valleys and 2-4" in the mountains. Rain amounts north will be about 50% of that. Convective potential remains low with this event, but not zero. But like the last event, it won't necessarily require a thunderstorm to generate heavy rain. Winds will not be as strong with this event either, but local gusts to 40 mph are possible in the heavier storms. As this system is originating from the south it is quite warm with snow levels over 9000 feet. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...29/210 PM. There will be a break in the steady rainfall sometime later Thursday night into Friday with just scattered light showers and minimal rain amounts. A more traditional cold front coming from the northwest will move into the area Saturday into Saturday night with another increase in rain rates, though likely lighter than Thursday with minimal impacts. Snow level will lower as there is more colder air with this system but still mostly at or above 6500 feet. Lots of uncertainty with regard to how long this showery regime will continue into the following week. Most of the deterministic models shut the rain door late Sunday but there are more than a few ensemble solutions indicating additional light precip into early next week. && .AVIATION...30/0437Z. At 00Z at KLAX, there was no inversion and no marine layer. For the 00Z TAFs high confidence in VFR conditions for all sites except for KPRB. At KPRB, there is a 20-30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 12Z-17Z. Strong offshore winds will generate moderate turbulence and LLWS across the local mountains and foothills through the period, especially for KCMA, KOXR, KBUR, and KVNY. KLAX...For 00Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in east wind component around 7 knots after 06Z time frame. There is potential for easterly wind gusts up to 15 kt from 10Z to 17Z. KBUR...For 00Z TAF, high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast as there is a 30-40% chance of stronger N-NE winds through this afternoon. && .MARINE...29/923 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast winds are expected south of the Channel Islands with winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Wednesday through Thursday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds with a 20% chance of GALE force winds. On Friday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds continuing. For Saturday, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels, but there is a 50% chance of SCA level seas. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-70% chance of SCA level NE winds through Tuesday morning with the strongest winds nearshore from Point Estero to Morro Bay and Irish hills to Oceano Beach. For Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds. On Thursday, the chance of SCA level southeasterly winds increases to 60-80% with a 30-40% chance of the SCA level winds continuing on Friday. For Saturday, high confidence in winds remaining below SCA levels, but there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level seas. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance for isolated gale force winds for the nearshore waters by Point Mugu, otherwise high confidence in SCA winds through tonight, possibly lasting into Tuesday night. High confidence in SCA level northeast winds through Wednesday morning from Point Mugu to Santa Monica. From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds. For Friday and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Sirard AVIATION...Phillips/RAT MARINE...Phillips/RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox