330 FXUS63 KLMK 301742 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Stubborn morning stratus and flurries possible through the first part of the morning. * Chances for light snow across SE Indiana and north central Kentucky New Year's Eve night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 347 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Northwest flow aloft will continue to advect in cold air over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Persistent low stratus associated with moisture trapped under an 850mb inversion will likely lingering into the morning with some isolated flurries or light snow. This will not amount to much so little to no impacts are expected. We will be mainly dry for today but clouds could linger later into the morning but current satellite imagery does show the back edge of the low stratus approaching the IL/IN border into far western KY. Mostly sunny skies are expected later this afternoon. While not as gusty as today, we could see winds out of the WNW gusting to 15-20 mph. Highs will be a little warmer, climbing into the low 30s. The first in a series of shortwave troughs embedded in the northwest flow aloft will pass across the Great Lakes tonight. We will see mainly cloud skies overnight with the precipitation staying north into central and northern IN. With the clouds and a SW surface wind our lows tonight will be in the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 347 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A quasi-stationary upper low over Hudson Bay will keep a deep trough over the east coast as strong ridging over the western half of the CONUS continues placing the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley under persistent NW flow aloft. A series of upper level disturbances and clippers systems will move along the northwest flow through the Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley. Most of these disturbances will stay north keeping the area mainly dry with the best chance for part of the CWA seeing light snow would be New Year's Eve Night across the Bluegrass. Even with that said, Accumulation at most would be a dusting on grassy and elevated surfaces. PoPs are in the 20 to 30 percent range with 30-40 percent east of I-75 and north of I-64. The rest of the area will mainly see mostly cloudy skies for New Year's Eve into New Year's Day. Highs will be in the upper 30s/low 40s with lows into New Year's Day morning in the mid/upper 20s. A system to our south could spread mainly rain showers across the southern half of the CWA Friday night into early Saturday but forecast trend as of the 00z run of the deterministic models continues to lean to a drier forecast for the weekend. For continuity will keep the mention of light precipitation, mainly in the form of rain but wouldn't be surprised if the forecast is mostly dry. Temperatures will be more seasonal for early January with daytime temperatures in the low 50s along the south and mid/upper 40s to the north and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Forecast confidence for early next week remains low but the upper pattern starts to flatten out and become more zonal over the Ohio Valley late Sunday into early next week keeping things relatively uneventful and mostly dry. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The lingering stratocu deck and resulting flurries have finally ended across the area, and will see prevailing VFR through the remainder of this forecast cycle. After mostly sunny skies this afternoon, we will see mid and upper cloud ceilings moving back into the area. Perhaps a few stray flurries could fall out of this mid level cloud deck, but with ceilings between 6 and 9 K feet, don't think it is that likely. Steady W winds today will give way to SW winds tonight and into Wednesday. Mid level clouds clear by sunrise Wednesday, but will hang onto some upper sky cover. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BJS