326 FXUS64 KLIX 282343 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Hot conditions will continue with heat index readings peaking by Tuesday up to 110F. - Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins. - Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns toward the middle of this week as an easterly waves moves over the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The region is currently starting to bake under a 594dam H5 ridge right over the region this afternoon. This is helping temperatures warm well into the 90s. That said, RH values and temps have not increased enough to bring us into heat advisory territory yet...at least today. With a rather high amount of subsidence aloft under the heat bubble, convection had a very difficult time late this morning and afternoon. That said, there are silent 10's over the BTR area as both globals and CAMs have an isolated rogue shower or two, similar to NOLA yesterday. Low confidence, but not impossible. Going into Monday and Tuesday the upper ridge lifts northward over the midsouth to include the Mid MISS River Valley. As it does it will strengthen a bit more, which will continue to provide our region with a mostly dry forecast, at least early on in the week. By late Tuesday and into Wednesday an easterly wave will continue downstream under the southern periphery of the aforementioned ridge...now over the Ohio River Valley and stronger...roughly 598dam. Although this will bake our friends to the north, this will add some spreed to the upper level inverted trough and move it through the region pretty quickly. This should overall limit a more widespread hydro/severe threat, but localized flooding and a severe wind gust or two will certainly be possible. As the easterly wave exits stage west, the POPs only drop slightly as we will continue to see plenty of low level moisture feed and less impacts from the ridge is it continues a bit more away from our region. This will allow for at least climo POPs/Temps as we evolve into a more summer like pattern going into the 2nd half of next week. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Going into late week and into the upcoming Holiday Weekend eyes shift upstream once again toward the Florida west coast as another H5 easterly wave tries to move westward toward our region late Thursday and into Friday. Once again, this will increase POPs and maybe lower temps a bit during peak heating. This feature appears rather weak in the globals, but there remains a QPF signal late week and sadly into the upcoming Fourth of July activities. It doesn't look at this juncture like a complete rain out, but many will see at least a brief shower or storm during the day Friday and Saturday. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR conditions with south-southwest winds at less than 10 knots are prevailing at all terminals. Aside from scattered build down of CIGs closer to MVFR near BTR and MCB before sunrise, no threshold changes are anticipated in this forecast cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 High pressure will move north of the coastal waters early this week and be replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over the local waters late Tuesday through Thursday. With this wave, expect an uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly during the overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection along with frequent lightning. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TJS MARINE...RDF