795 FXUS64 KLIX 310452 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for much of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and southeast St. Tammany Parish this morning as wind chill values drop to around 20 to 25 degrees. - A Freeze Warning remains in effect for areas west of New Orleans for potential of sub-freezing temperatures through this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (NOW through Thursday night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The cold weather headlines will drop later this morning. High pressure is forecast to spread southeastward over the western Gulf from southeast Texas through Thursday. This will help to provide another cold night for NYE, however, not as cold with Thursday being about 10 degrees warmer. The upper flow will begin to transition going into Thursday as broad upper level ridging noses eastward allowing heights to rise across the area. This will kick off a warming trend where temperatures by Thursday will finally be back near average for late Dec/early Jan. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Going into Friday the pattern begins to change further as the upper flow becomes more zonal in nature. Low level flow favors more of an onshore flow allowing for surface winds to increase with more moisture spreading into the region. In the zonal flow an H5 impulse will slide east and help develop a weak surface low over the Red River Valley early in the period. This feature should follow the I20 corridor east with time. Models aren't particularly bullish with QPF, but kept middle of the road POPs. Forecast soundings continue to indicate some weak instability so continued to advertise some thunder potential late Friday and early Saturday morning. Going later into the weekend the upper flow pattern transitions again to a dry northwest flow once again as we are on the eastern periphery of a ridge building over Texas and northern Mexico. Whatever slight drop in temperatures behind the earlier front Friday/Saturday, the ridging spreading east into our region should help bring temperatures back above average with dry conditions continuing through the end of the long term. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. Winds should remain rather light and variable with a gradual shift to the southwest in time. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Cautionary headlines continue for the tidal lakes and Gulf waters through the overnight Conditions improve later today as high pressure begins to build into the region. The next system that could elevate winds and seas will be due into the region late Friday or Saturday with at least some need for cautionary headlines Friday and Saturday. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 46 27 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 49 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 50 27 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 51 37 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 50 30 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 50 26 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ056>060-065. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ076. GM...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ084>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF