247 FXUS64 KLIX 302333 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 533 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for much of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and southeast St. Tammany Parish Wednesday morning as wind chill values drop to around 20 to 25 degrees. - Freeze Warning also remains in effect for areas west of New Orleans for potential of sub-freezing temps Tues night into Wed Morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The arctic airmass behind the front that came through the area yesterday will keep advecting cold air into the area for another day today and tonight. This will keep temps below 55 degrees today and below freezing for most of the area tonight except for immediately south of Lake Pontchartrain. Winds are expected to weaken throughout the night tonight, keeping wind chill values in the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be slightly higher right along the Mississippi Coast, so a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 3am to 10am. The ridge axis across the Great Basin region is expected to pivot eastward closer to the area tomorrow, bringing its associated high pressure southwest of the area. This also promotes slight warm air advection into the area. This all points to a "warmer" day tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s (~10 degrees warmer than today). Although we start advecting warmer air into the area, dry continental air will stick around, keeping PW below the 10th percentile. Because of this, it will be a clear cool today tomorrow, albeit warmer than it is today. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1057 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Because we're expecting to warm up Wednesday, Wednesday night is also expected to be warmer than tonight. Temps should remain above freezing for the entire area Wednesday night, although a light frost is possible mainly north of the I-12 corridor. The aforementioned ridge is expected to weaken and shift eastward on Thursday, bringing even warmer temperatures into the area (mid to upper 60s) while still remaining very dry. On Friday, a shortwave trough moving through the southern plains is expected to spin up a surface low across the ArkLaTex region during the morning hours. This will promote a greater moisture return into the area ahead of its associated cold front. There seem to be model differences in trough strength and timing on Friday, which will play a big role in how active we get (or not get). A weaker trough will likely result in just scattered showers as the front passes, but a stronger one could point to more active weather during the late afternoon and evening hours. Needless to say, a low end severe weather threat is on the table for Friday, but given the uncertainty, we will have to see what the trends are in the coming days to see how active (or not active) we get on Friday. We'll cool down a little bit going into the weekend, but since the front is not expected to be very strong with no arctic connection, we only look to cool down 5-6 degrees in the following days. This keeps highs in the upper 60s and low 70s into the weekend and into the following week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. Winds should remain rather light and variable with a gradual shift to the southwest in time. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1057 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Small Craft Advisories continue for the tidal lakes and Gulf waters through midday today. Winds will decrease slightly, however, cautionary headlines will still be required this afternoon and well into the evening and overnight hours. Conditions improve by midweek as high pressure begins to build into the region by Wednesday. The next system that could elevate winds and seas will be due into the region late Friday or Saturday with at least some need for cautionary headlines Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 28 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 29 60 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 26 59 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 37 60 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 30 58 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 26 58 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ056>060-065. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ076. GM...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ084>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM....JZ AVIATION...RDF MARINE...JZ