107 FXUS64 KLCH 291821 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 121 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical summertime hot conditions can be expected into next week with the heat risk mainly at Moderate or Level 2 of 4. Max afternoon apparent temperatures or the heat index will range from 100 to 107 degrees daily. - A plume of Saharan dust will move over the area through early Tuesday allowing for hazy skies with vivid sunrises and sunsets. - An upper level ridge will break down by mid week allowing a weakness to develop that will bring back a daily chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 An upper level ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley visible on water vapor satellite imagery remains the dominant feature over much of the eastern CONUS today. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and associated dust plume is evident rotating around this ridge over southeast Texas and Louisiana. Subsidence associated with this ridge will result in warm mid-levels (700 mb temperatures around 90th percentile) that will suppress afternoon convection and lead to another hot day. Surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf Coast is resulting in light southerly breezes over the area, keeping a steady flow of low-level Gulf moisture over the area. Afternoon high temperatures today should generally be in the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s further inland. Mixing this afternoon should allow dewpoints to drop into the low to mid 70s, resulting in maximum heat indices this afternoon around 105 for most areas. While this remains below heat advisory criteria, heat safety precautions are still urged. The SAL overhead will also result in hazy skies over our CWA this afternoon and will have some impacts on air quality. Dust mixing to the surface has raised PM2.5 levels into the moderate range, meaning persons unusually sensitive to air pollution should consider limiting time outdoors. On a more positive note, we are likely to see some vivid sunsets and sunrises across the area as the dust scatters the longer wavelengths of solar radiation. The 500mb ridge will begin shifting to the northeast Tuesday. This will allow for the SAL to disperse, and also allow for some deeper moisture to begin increasing from east to west across the area. Some isolated afternoon convection will be possible, mainly along the seabreeze, but most areas should stay dry. Guidance is then in agreement that a shortwave disturbance will move through our CWA Wednesday. This disturbance will follow an unusual east-to-west track owing to the position of the upper-level ridge north of our CWA, and will bring some additional moisture, pushing PWATs up to around 2 inches (75th-90th percentile). This should bring scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday, with the highest chances over the eastern half of our CWA where moisture will be greater. The increased convection may bring high temps down a couple of degrees, but will likely be offset by an increase in humidity, keeping maximum heat indices in the mid-100s range. For the remainder of the week into the Independence Day holiday weekend, the upper-level ridge will slowly shift to the northeast, gradually breaking down as it does so. High temperatures will persist in the low to mid 90s through this period with resulting heat indices generally in the 103 to 107 range. With the stronger subsidence displaced from the region and PWAT generally in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon, initially along the seabreeze and then propagating inland along outflow boundaries before dissipating in the evening hours. 64/Silas && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Light southerly winds and scattered to broken cumulus clouds will prevail through this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible with this cumulus field this afternoon particularly at LFT/ARA. Overnight, patchy fog may bring visibility down to MVFR levels at AEX, most likely in the 10-13z time frame. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the valid TAF period. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Surface high pressure over the northern Gulf will bring light southeasterly flow of around 5-10 kt to the coastal waters through this week. Upper level ridging moves off to the northeast by midweek, allowing chances of showers and thunderstorms to return to mainly the lakes, bays, and nearshore waters from Wednesday through the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Light southerly winds around 5-10 kt will keep a steady stream of Gulf moisture over the area, with afternoon RH minimum values between 45 and 55 percent each day. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return on Wednesday as a disturbance passes through the region, with scattered afternoon convection then possible each day into the weekend. Fire weather concerns appear minimal through the forecast period. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64 AVIATION...64