307 FXUS64 KLCH 291718 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Typical summertime hot conditions can be expected into next week with the heat risk mainly at Moderate or Level 2 of 4. Max afternoon apparent temperatures or the heat index will range from 100 to 107 degrees daily. - A plume of Saharan dust will move over the area through early Tuesday allowing for hazy skies with vivid sunrises and sunsets. - An upper level ridge will break down by mid week allowing a weakness to develop that will bring back a daily chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Latest water vapor imagery, along with regional upper air analysis, show an upper level ridge centered over the region. Very dry and subsident air is noted with this system, along with a Saharan Air Layer. This upper level ridge will maintain control over the forecast area into early Tuesday with a plume of Saharan dust moving around its periphery. The dry and sinking air, along with warming aloft from the dust plume and over the forecast area, will suppress any significant shower activity. Summertime temperatures and humidity is expected with highs in the low to mid 90s and the max afternoon heat index ranging from 100 to 107 degrees. This is below local heat advisory criteria, with a moderate heat risk outlined from WPC, which is level 2 out of 4, and means affects may occur to those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling and hydration. The Saharan Air Layer and associated dust plume will make for hazy daytime skies, with the particles helping air quality reach moderate levels which means it may have affects to those who are unusually sensitive to air pollution. On a brighter note, sunrises and sunsets should be colorful and more vivid then usual. During Tuesday, the Saharan Air Layer will move off to the north and disperse as the upper level ridge shifts to the northeast. This will allow for a few showers or storms to develop in the afternoon along the sea breeze. The upper level ridge will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. This will allow for a weakness to develop aloft with a weak upper level low or inverted trough axis moving in. This will allow mainly diurnal showers and/or thunderstorms to develop during max heating along with any sea breeze and mesoscale boundaries. Any convection that develops is expected to diminish after sunset. Not much change in temperatures or humidity is expected during the mid to latter part of the week. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Light southerly winds and scattered to broken cumulus clouds will prevail through this afternoon and evening. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings are possible with this cumulus field this afternoon particularly at LFT/ARA. Overnight, patchy fog may bring visibility down to MVFR levels at AEX, most likely in the 10-13z time frame. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the valid TAF period. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A weak surface high across the northern Gulf will keep a light to modest southerly flow in place, along with low seas this week. A small chance for showers and thunderstorms will return by mid week for the nearshore waters, as well as the coastal lakes and bays. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A modest southerly flow will allow low level Gulf moisture into the area with typical afternoon minimum relative humidity values between 50 and 60 percent over the next few days. An upper level high will keep any significant rain out of the forecast through Tuesday, with rain chances beginning to increase on Wednesday. No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...64