333 FXUS62 KKEY 291439 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the middle of the week. - Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through today. - Conditions are setting up for a potential cloud line to development over or adjacent to the Florida Keys on Tuesday. This would also carry a risk for possible waterspouts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 It has been relatively tame across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters compared to yesterday. Drier air is working its way down from the northeast and will keep clouds and our rain chances at bay for today. A slightly stronger wind and this drier air has lowered our chances for a cloud line to develop this afternoon. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to reside across mainly the Straits of Florida, where instability will also be enough to support occasional showers through the afternoon. Though it cannot be ruled out, one or two isolated thunderstorms may be able to briefly form. However, with the dry air aloft, it will struggle to maintain for long. Made minor changes to the going forecast for today. Lowered PoPs to 10 percent given the dry air moving in. Otherwise, we will continue to see one more day of light to gentle east to southeasterlies before winds become more light and variable on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Shower activity has confined itself mostly to the Straits of Florida. Across these waters, there will be enough moisture and instability to support occasional showers. The stronger showers may briefly become a thunderstorm, however, it would be very short lived. Nonetheless, any thunderstorm that manages to develop will carry a risk for gusty, erratic winds, brief blinding downpours, and brief bouts of lightning. Otherwise, gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will persist into the afternoon and then quickly slacken during the late evening and overnight. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions expected today for both island terminals. Drier air moving in from the northeast will likely inhibit any cloud line development for this afternoon. Therefore, will take out mentions of VCSH at this time. Surface winds will remain east to southeast around 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A mostly uneventful night for the Florida Keys. KBYX has remained shower-free for the majority of the night, although some showers are popping up along some boundaries in our waters over the last hour or so. These showers have been light and short fused and so far none have made it to the island chain. Seen on MIMIC PWAT, dry air has moved into the area which is helping limit these showers. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s once again making for muggy conditions. Along the Reef, wind observations are easterly at 10 to 15 knots. Today will be similar to previous with chances of showers and thunderstorms but nothing that will last long due to dry air in the area. A frontal boundary is expected to move down Florida later tonight but not much is expected for us to change. As the frontal boundary weakens the high that has been controlling our winds, they will start to slacken. Temperatures and dewpoints will remain similar to the following days so muggy and warm conditions will continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 20 20 20 Marathon 89 83 89 83 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW/AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest