944 

FXUS62 KKEY 010256

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

956 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Fog will be possible overnight across portions of the Keys due 

  to high dew points and light breezes clocking northwest to 

  north.

 

- A strong high pressure system sinking into the northern Plains

  from Canada is forecast to freshen breezes early next week.

  Breezy conditions are possible at times.

 

- A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn

  bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water

  supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight

  chance for showers.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 955 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



The big story this evening is the dense fog bank that rolled into

Key West Harbor and the Lower Keys mainly from No Name westward,

with temperatures holding in the mid 70s and dewpoint depressions

only about 1-3F. Northerly winds increased a bit to near 8 mph.

meanwhile winds in the Upper Keys have only just begun to become

northerly as the shallow boundary...appearing frontal in this

evening's sounding...drifts south. This is the main challenge this

evening as some rainfall occurred with thunderstorms along the

south Florida east coast with a lot of stratus further upwind

across east central Florida. Speaking of this evening's sounding,

a distrinct frontal inversion was noted below 600 feet. While

short range guidance shows a modest drop of a couple degrees in

dewpoint by morning, the same statistical output favors a

continuation of cloudiness and low ceilings especially across the

Lower Keys, with a lesser certainty of a brief spell from Marathon

on up through Key Largo more toward morning. 



History suggests these can be tenacious events in the Keys, and

per the previous shift merely extended the patchy fog arrangement

a bit longer with a close look at coverage. Should the north wind

maintain speed the initial fog may decrease gradually favoring a

low stratus for the remainder of the night.  



Rainfall-wise, slight chances will continue with another shot of

positive vorticity advection aloft associated with the shortwave

trough axis still yet to move overhead later Sunday, with the 

best potential for isolated showers over the Straits and perhaps 

Florida Bay/Upper Keys area toward morning.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 955 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for 

the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle north to

northeast winds have finally become established across the Florida

Keys coastal watere at 5 to 8 knots, with seas at Satan Shoal

around 1 foot. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge across South 

Florida will pull further east while a frontal boundary stalls 

across north central Florida. The combination of these features 

will result in light breezes likely becoming variable later today.

Thereafter, a broad high pressure system is forecast to migrate 

into the eastern United States, then out into the Atlantic. This 

is expected to support freshening breezes, especially across the 

Straits of Florida. A mix of Cautions and Advisories is becoming 

increasingly likely for the bulk of the work week.





&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 955 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



IFR visibilities and LIFR ceilings are likely to continue after an

abrupt onset a short while ago at EYW, with MTH being monitored

for a bout of IFR visiblity and ceiling later, perhaps after 04Z.

Slow improvement in visibility is possible toward morning but the

outlook on ceilings may be pessimistic until after sunrise Sunday.

North to northeast surface winds around 5 knots are likely to 

pick up to 6 to 9 knots during the day with predominant VFR 

becoming re-established in the mid to late morning hours. Shower

changes remain slight and no VCSH mentions were provided for

either the EYW or MTH TAF at this time.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...JR

Aviation/Nowcasts....JR

Data Acquisition.....DR



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