907 FXUS62 KKEY 281840 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will be possible this evening across portions of the Keys due to high dew points and light breezes clocking northwest to north. - A strong high pressure system sinking into the northern Plains from Canada is forecast to freshen breezes early next week. Breezy conditions are possible at times. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Periodic MVFR CIGs are currently observed at EYW and MTH ASOS observations due to cloud streamers developing along the island chain. These ceilings will likely be sporadic and short lived if further observed. Thinking for conditions later today has not changed. Light near surface winds will turn to the north later today and low ceilings and fog will be possible as it advects in from the Gulf. Uncertainty is still relatively high as these features have yet to coalesce and depends on when the wind direction changes from variable to northerly. Decided to leave the line in with the northerly wind shift that describes lower CIGs and VIS but opted to keep it in VFR conditions due to uncertainty for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Over the course of the day, troughing moving through the eastern United States and associated weak lower level troughing developing across the peninsula will push out the surface ridge. This along with day time heating will help to relax breezes as they clock southwesterly. Low level inhibition and limited lower to mid level moisture will help to keep rain chances minimal. There is considerable uncertainty regarding fog potential late today into tonight. Surface dew points are expected to fall into the upper 60s overnight with the northerly flow. This along with water temperatures near or slightly below 70 on our gulf waters should provide a window for fog and low ceilings across portions of the Middle and Lower Keys. The lower level trough across Florida will lift out to the northeast tonight as modest surface ridging expands southeastward from the southeastern United States. This will help to firm up northeasterly breezes. Winds coming in out of the northern half of the compass will help nudge dew points down further into the mid 60s. Temperatures should remain slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and lows near 70. A lengthy stretch of near breezy or breezy conditions are expected to set in heading into mid week as a beefy anticyclone builds southeastward off of northeastern North America. Breezes will begin trending upwards late Sunday and remain moderate to fresh through much of the week. These moderate to fresh breezes will gradually clock further east northeasterly to east over the ensuing days as the high builds out into the Atlantic. Expect a fairly static pattern through much of the week with highs near 80, lows near 70, and dew points in the upper 60s. The fast flow and deepening boundary layer should result in slight to low chance for showers. .MARINE... Issued at 1113 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge across South Florida will pull further east while a frontal boundary stalls across north central Florida. The combination of these features will result in light breezes likely becoming variable later today. Thereafter, a broad high pressure system is forecast to migrate into the eastern United States, then out into the Atlantic. This is expected to support freshening breezes, especially across the Straits of Florida. A mix of Cautions and Advisories is becoming increasingly likely for the bulk of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 68 78 69 79 / 10 0 10 10 Marathon 68 78 70 78 / 10 10 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest