121 FXUS62 KKEY 310343 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1043 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Fresh northwest to north breezes will prevail overnight following this morning's cold front. -Rain chances near nil expected through the end of the week. -Coldest air of the season so far has arrived! Overnight lows expected to fall into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees in the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 It has been a quiet but breezy evening for the Florida Keys. This is thanks to the earlier cold front that swept through. In its wake, some of the coldest air of the season thus far is beginning to filter in across the island chain. Temperatures this hour are hovering in the low to mid 60s and are expected to fall into the 50s for the majority of the Keys. The exception will be the island communities in the Upper Keys immediately downwind of the mainland. Cold air advection combined with a northwest to north drainage wind could allow a few select locations to bottom out in the upper 40s. This plus the wind will make wind chill values feel like the mid 40s, mainly in the Upper Keys. As such, the forecast remains on track and no changes were needed to the going forecast for the island chain. Minor changes were made to the current coastal waters forecast. A slightly west of north wind became more northerly across the waters immediately downwind of the mainland, which allowed for a brief lull. However, along the eastern Hawk Channel waters, winds have already recovered back to near 20 knots. Thus any lull will quickly dissipate over the next one to two hours. Other than a minor adjustment to initial conditions for the coastal waters forecast, expecting fresh northerly breezes to overtake all waters overnight. The Straits of Florida will at times flirt with an occasional strong breeze. Regardless, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. Fresh northerly breezes expected for the overnight as cold air advection plus a drainage wind off the mainland helps fuel a nocturnal surge. This surge is expected to peak late overnight and into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thereafter, a weakening pressure gradient will lead to a somewhat quick slackening in winds during Wednesday and then become more gradual through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight and well into Wednesday. A northerly crosswind will persist through the overnight with a magnitude of 20 to 25 knots. Gusty winds will slacken shortly after sunrise, while remaining from the north. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest