994 FXUS62 KKEY 301623 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1123 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Light to gentle breezes will sharply freshen this morning as a cold front moves through. -Slight chances for rain possible ahead of and along the frontal passage this morning. -Coldest air of the season so far arrives today! Early morning highs near 70 degrees will fall during the afternoon into the lower to mid 60s with overnight lows near 50 degrees in the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. && .MORNING UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A cold front has arrived this morning in the Florida Keys. GOES-19 visible imagery shows the leading edge of the front represented by a thin line of cumulus on a convergence boundary now in the distant Straits of Florida. KBYX detected a few shallow showers along this line when it crossed the island chain, but very little precipitation fell over land with its passage. Behind this line, fresh northerly breezes surged across the area and continue to be recorded along the Reef. Observed temperatures have generally stayed near or just below 70 degrees seeing practically no change from sunrise this morning likely due to mostly cloud skies and cool northerly winds filtering in. Meanwhile, dew points have already dropped into the lower 60s. Looks like we managed to squeeze in a cold snap for the last few days of the year. Temperatures will remain somewhat stagnant over the next few hours before gradually falling through the late afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh northwest to north breezes will continue to freshen over the western portion of our CWA, only leaving out the eastern edge shadowed by mainland Florida. Drier air has already intruded into our area resulting in near nil PoPs for the foreseeable future. Tonight, temperatures will continue to fall with lows expected to reach the mid 50s, with some near 50 in the Upper Keys, by early tomorrow morning. Breezes will also finally pick up across our eastern waters overnight and likely be accompanied with an early morning surge from mainland drainage. While breezes look to gradually slacken afterwards, these cooler temperatures will likely accompany us into the new year! && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A cold front is rapidly moving through the Florida Keys early this morning. KBYX radar shows a few sprinkles/light rain showers along a rope cloud moving southeastward between 15 to 20 knots through the southeast Gulf waters. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery also shows the thin rope cloud moving southeastward across the southeast Gulf waters. Behind the rope cloud is an area of lower stratus which is also moving southeastward. This area of cloud cover is anticipated to move over the Keys later this morning followed by clearing during the mid to late afternoon. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing west to northwest breezes near 10 knots. However, a buoy just outside the Gulf waters observed 23 knots gusting to 29 knots after 3 am. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s. .FORECAST... The aforementioned cold front is expected to continue pressing southeastward this morning. This will usher in the coldest air mass of the season thus far for the Florida Keys. Also, this cold snap will line of up right with the New Year's holiday making it a chilly one. Northwest to north breezes will freshen rapidly this morning, especially across the Lower and Middle Keys. The Upper Keys will take a little bit longer for the breezy conditions to develop with this most likely developing tonight. Temperatures will become noticeably colder with overnight lows near 50 in the Upper Keys tonight and the mid 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. Dew points are also expected to tumble with many areas seeing dew points drop into the 40s, perhaps even the 30s. There are even some indications portions of the Upper Keys may see dew points fall into the upper 20s! These dew points will be indicative of the dry/Canadian air mass moving into the area. In the wake of the front, breezy conditions are expected to continue tonight into at least early Wednesday morning. Strong high pressure over Texas this morning will continue moving to the east to southeast throughout the week while slowly weakening. Due to the slow movement of the high, the northwest to north flow will linger into New Years Day/Thursday night before breezes start to shift to the northeast. Even though breezes slacken a little bit on Wednesday, a subtler wind surge is anticipated New Years Eve night into New Years Day due to the mainland nocturnal land breeze. In addition, the coldest temperatures are expected to occur New Years Eve night just in time to ring in 2026! Overnight lows into New Years Day morning are expected to be in the upper 40s for the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. Temperatures will start to slowly rebound beginning Friday with highs getting back towards 70 degrees and overnight lows back into the 60s. Over the weekend, temperatures will be back to near normal which is highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 60s. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys through the period leading to nil rain chances through Saturday. Another potentially reinforcing/weak front may press through the Keys during the second half of the weekend into early next week. However, the timing, intensity, and if this front will even push through remains to be seen. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters, except for the easternmost zones where winds will take a little longer to freshen. From synopsis, a cold front will continue pressing through the Keys this morning. This will lead to freshening northerly breezes, thus A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters today, except for the easternmost waters where breezes will take more time to freshen. In the wake of the front, high pressure currently across Texas will slowly weaken as it moves east to southeast into the eastern Gulf. This will promote gradually slackening breezes. This high moves overhead towards the end of the week/weekend resulting in further slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Following the passage of the leading edge of a cold front this morning, periodic MVFR CIGs continue to be observed at either terminal. This will pass as skies become mostly clear in the early afternoon, leaving fresh northerly breezes with frequent gusts to 20 to 25 knots resulting in crosswind concerns as the sole impact for the rest of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 71 57 65 57 / 20 0 0 0 Marathon 71 54 63 55 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ032>035-043- 044-053>055-073>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest