801 FXUS63 KJKL 290301 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1101 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week. - Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 Deep convection has ended for time being across eastern Kentucky late this evening. However, an additional disturbance diving south from the Great Lakes could spark additional isolated showers through the overnight and early morning hours. Otherwise, expect fog to form, especially in valleys, and become locally dense. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 The afternoon surface analysis shows a stationary boundary to the north across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. This feature will waver around the Ohio Valley through the short term period, as it retrogrades back into Kentucky tonight. That said, the NBM does add in some showers later tonight along this feature and some of the CAMs show this potential as well. Given this did keep at least some showers in the forecast for potions of the area tonight. The question is can we see much given the rising heights from the strong 500mb high pressing into the Ohio Valley. Given this kept PoPs in the 20-30 percent range. The next hazard of concern tonight will be clearing skies for some areas and either low stratus and/or fog potential. The forecast soundings for portions of the area including the HREF forecast soundings show an inversion setting later this evening into the night. Given this think there is a decent shot of seeing patchy to even areas of dense fog especially after midnight. Model guidance remains in good agreement for building heights through the period, as 500mb high and surface high push east into the region. This will set the stage for warming temperatures into the lower 90s for many locations on Monday afternoon. The combination of warming temperatures and humidity values will lead to heat indices near or greater that 100 degrees. Given the potential for some spots getting closer to 105 in the western parts of the CWA opted to hoist a Heat Advisory in collaboration with surrounding offices. This will also be good messaging for those affected by the flooding over the past several days. This will also have to be looked at closer on other shifts for potentially needing additional heat products through much of the holiday week. The one potential breakdown to this will be that boundary and if any convection develops along it. Then once again Monday night mostly clear skies and inversion setting in will lead to another night and morning of at least patchy dense fog. Lows will drop into the lower 70s in most cases, with perhaps a few upper 60s in the valleys. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 557 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 Hot and muggy conditions look to be a main stay for Eastern Kentucky through the extended. Models continue to show, and are in good agreement over a ridge of high pressure located over Southern potions of the Ohio as well as Tennessee Valleys. The ridge axis, continues further north into the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario, by Tuesday morning. Additionally, an upper level trough is located over the Great Basin in Western CONUS, with an upper level disturbance further north over the High Plains. With high pressure hovering overhead through next week, afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies, light and variable winds, and dew points in the lower 70s. In the evenings, temperatures cool into the low to mid 70s. These hot and muggy conditions are poised to last several days, peaking between July 1 and July 3rd. Many areas west of the Big Sandy River Basin have a 80-90% probability of seeing Heat Indices of at least 100F. Any members of the general public without access to shelter or hydration, especially these three days, are most susceptible to heat related illnesses. While chances are low each day, with abundant moisture in the atmosphere, isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms remain possible each afternoon and early evening. At this time, most locations should remain dry. Thursday evening into Friday, an upper level disturbance ejects out of the Northern Rockies into the High Plains. By Friday afternoon this disturbance approaches the Upper Great Lakes and begins flattening the ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This may lead to more scattered shower and storm chances heading into the 4th and 5th of July. Models are still resolving the overall pattern and underlying details leading to lower confidence towards next weekends forecast. Additionally, while unlikely, skies may become hazy at times over the next week in part due to several wildfires over the Four Corners region (Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado). This would have the littlest bit of impact if realized, and at most may shave a degree or two off of the high temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are present at the start of the TAF period with a just isolated showers, primarily over the Cumberland River Basin. Overnight, partly cloudy skies and recent rainfall will allow for fog to form and it could become IFR or worse in valleys. Fog density and extent at the TAF terminals is less certain as patchy cloud cover and shower activity, particularly near SME, LOZ and IOB, may tend to limit fog density over western sites. The winds will be light and variable through the period at less than 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050-051- 058-059-068-069-079-080-083>086. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...GEERTSON