694 FXUS63 KJKL 282008 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 408 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week. - Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 The afternoon surface analysis shows a stationary boundary to the north across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. This feature will waver around the Ohio Valley through the short term period, as it retrogrades back into Kentucky tonight. That said, the NBM does add in some showers later tonight along this feature and some of the CAMs show this potential as well. Given this did keep at least some showers in the forecast for potions of the area tonight. The question is can we see much given the rising heights from the strong 500mb high pressing into the Ohio Valley. Given this kept PoPs in the 20-30 percent range. The next hazard of concern tonight will be clearing skies for some areas and either low stratus and/or fog potential. The forecast soundings for portions of the area including the HREF forecast soundings show an inversion setting later this evening into the night. Given this think there is a decent shot of seeing patchy to even areas of dense fog especially after midnight. Model guidance remains in good agreement for building heights through the period, as 500mb high and surface high push east into the region. This will set the stage for warming temperatures into the lower 90s for many locations on Monday afternoon. The combination of warming temperatures and humidity values will lead to heat indices near or greater that 100 degrees. Given the potential for some spots getting closer to 105 in the western parts of the CWA opted to hoist a Heat Advisory in collaboration with surrounding offices. This will also be good messaging for those affected by the flooding over the past several days. This will also have to be looked at closer on other shifts for potentially needing additional heat products through much of the holiday week. The one potential breakdown to this will be that boundary and if any convection develops along it. Then once again Monday night mostly clear skies and inversion setting in will lead to another night and morning of at least patchy dense fog. Lows will drop into the lower 70s in most cases, with perhaps a few upper 60s in the valleys. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 500-mb height analysis shows high pressure building across the Tennessee Valley, with the apex of the ridge axis over the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. Further west, a fairly large upper level trough extends south into the Great Basin, with multiple embedded upper level disturbances in the flow across the Northern Rockies. As high pressure takes hold of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, skies over Eastern Kentucky will continue clearing out heading into the overnight hours Monday. With high pressure in such a close proximity, light winds, clearing skies, and little to no pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to good conditions for decoupling valleys, and for development. As valleys decouple, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s, with low 70s along ridge tops. Patchy fog will mix out by mid morning before the area sees hot and muggy weather. With dew points forecasted in the 70s, along with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, diurnally driven storms may occur late in the afternoon/evening hours Tuesday through Saturday. These storms would be isolated to scattered in nature. As briefly mentioned above, afternoon temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s and cool into lower 70s at night. Those temperatures combined with model dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, hot and muggy conditions will also lead to Heat indices of 100F or higher Tuesday trough Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026 We are seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR this afternoon to begin the TAF period. The storm activity from earlier has progressed southeast into Tennessee this afternoon. While most sites will improve through the afternoon, we could still see MVFR Cigs mix in at times with the passing lower cumulus. There have also been a few weak rain showers passing through parts of the area this afternoon, but left these out of the TAFs as little if any restrictions would be expected. The combination of rainfall and clearing skies will set the stage for fog and low stratus tonight into Monday morning. This will lead to sites going below minimums especially between 08z-12Z timeframe. The winds will be light and variable through the period at less than 10 knots. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...DJ