633 

FXUS63 KJKL 281921

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

221 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures will persist through tonight, before 

  a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.



- After low chances (0 to 20%) for measurable rain behind the 

  cold front late tonight and early on Sunday, there is greater 

  potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week. 



- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern  

  locations late Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any 

  accumulations look to be light.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)

Issued at 221 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026



The latest surface analysis reveals a dry cold front draped across 

much of the eastern CONUS, trailing from a surface low tracking 

across the southern Hudson Bay region of east-central Canada. A weak 

surface wave is currently positioned along this boundary over 

central Missouri. Locally, the region remains ahead of the front, 

characterized by light winds and temperatures climbing into the low 

to mid 60s under clear skies.



Through the remainder of today, the cold front will sweep across the 

Commonwealth. The Missouri surface wave, supported by the local zone 

of baroclinicity, is progged to shift into the Ohio Valley tonight. 

This feature will bring isolated PoP chances to the CWA overnight 

before quickly exiting Sunday morning. While Saturday model suites 

maintain isolated PoP, CAMs remain more bullish, keeping the highest 

chances across southern Ohio and West Virginia. Consequently, a 

blend of CAMs and NBM was utilized for the overnight PoP forecast. 

Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass to the 

upper 40s near the VA/TN border, ensuring any light precipitation 

remains in liquid form.



Behind the departing front on Sunday, surface high pressure will 

drift southeastward into the CWA, providing a brief period of dry 

weather and cooler temperatures. This lull will be short-lived as 

upper-level dynamics support cyclogenesis over the Central Plains. 

This system is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth, 

with PoP increasing Sunday evening and persisting through the 

remainder of the period. Consistent with previous forecasts, a 

wintry mix remains possible at the onset late Sunday night into 

Monday morning. Recent guidance indicates slightly cooler overnight 

profiles, leading to higher snow probabilities rather than a rain-

snow mix, primarily for locations along and north of the Mountain 

Parkway. Very isolated, light accumulations are possible in areas of 

higher precipitation rates. By mid-morning Monday, temperatures will 

rise above freezing, transitioning all wintry precipitation back to 

rain.



The forecast period remains characterized by transient surface high 

pressure and generally above-average temperatures, punctuated by two 

disturbances bringing PoP chances tonight and again Sunday night 

into Monday.



.LONG TERM...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)

Issued at 722 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



The forecast becomes more active in the long term period, starting 

with a marginal winter weather set up and ending in much warmer-than-

normal temperatures. A series of shortwave impulses amidst a 

persistent regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft will push a warm front 

north across the Ohio River Valley early in the week. This 

progressively produces more potent warm air advection and moisture 

return processes, and spring/summer-esque convection appears 

possible in Eastern Kentucky by the end of the period. However, the 

forecast area will be positioned on the cold side of this boundary 

when the period opens on Sunday night. 



Confidence is high that northerly surface winds associated with a 

Canadian high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will 

advect a shallow layer of sub-freezing air into the northern half of 

the forecast area. Probabilistic ensemble data supports this notion, 

with a 60-90% chance of overnight lows below 32 degrees in locations 

north of a line stretching from Mount Vernon to Jackson to 

Prestonsburg. If isentropically-forced precipitation arrives while 

these cold temperatures are in place, the modeled atmospheric 

temperature profiles will be cold enough to support snow in this 

corridor. Given the warm and mostly sunny conditions forecast across 

the area during the short term period, ground/pavement temperatures 

will likely be above freezing leading into the event. This will 

limit accumulation potential, as will the approach of the boundary's 

warm air advection regime. 



Confidence is also high that afternoon highs on Monday will rise 

well above the freezing point. In fact, the NBM ensemble 

probabilities of MaxTs greater than 40 degrees are above 90% area-

wide, even in our higher-terrain locales. This gives credence to the 

notion that any precipitation that occurs on Monday afternoon (and 

beyond) will fall in the form of a plain, liquid rain. 



The forecast guidance suite continues to disagree upon when the 

precipitation associated with this frontal boundary's isentropic 

upglide will arrive here in Eastern Kentucky. The European guidance 

has trended slower/warmer/wetter, whereas the GFS camp of solutions 

is quicker/colder/icier. Warm air will arrive faster aloft, and this 

creates a "warm nose" temperature profile within the currently 

available forecast model soundings (GFS/NAM). When this combination 

of freezing surface temperatures and an inversion of relatively 

warmer air aloft appears together, concerns for mixed precipitation 

types enter the forecast. This particular warm nose does not look 

especially vigorous, and there remains quite a bit of spread in the 

corresponding dewpoint temperature profiles. Thus, the latent heat 

absorbed from any evaporative wetbulbing and melting processes would 

lead to a localized cooling effect and reduce the magnitude of the 

warm nose. A brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out as 

the favored precipitation type changes from frozen snowflakes to 

liquid rain by midday Monday, but a rain/snow mix looks to be the 

most probable solution. 



The LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities for at least a glaze (0.01) of 

freezing rain continue to hover in the 20-30% range, whereas the 

probability of measurable snowfall (>=0.1 inches) in both the NBM 

and LREF ensembles has increased to 40-60% along/north of the 

Mountain Parkway corridor. These snow probabilities drop off 

significantly for accumulation thresholds above 0.5 inches, and 

event total accumulations will likely be undercut by the wet snow 

ratios and mixed p-types. The current snow accumulation grids are 

likely overdone, but the odds of winter precipitation accumulations 

generally increase the further north one goes in the forecast area. 

The primary concern is for slushy accumulations or a light glaze of 

ice to overlap with the Monday morning commute. WPC currently 

highlights a 20-30% chance of winter travel impacts in Kentucky, 

which reinforces the idea that this is a low-probability but 

potentially impactful event. So, despite the marginal nature of this 

set up, we will be closely monitoring the higher-resolution CAMs and 

HREF ensemble data as this event enters their temporal range today. 



Once the warm air advection regime spreads to the surface across the 

entire forecast area by Monday afternoon, the pattern transitions to 

a wetter and warmer one. The warm front responsible for the above 

activity's isentropic lift is forecast to stall out just to the 

north of the forecast area early next week. That boundary will then 

serve as the focal point for the precipitation chances that linger 

through the rest of the period. Increasing model spread smooths the 

arrival time of each shortwave disturbance, but with each passing 

one, the stalled boundary gets pulled a little bit further to the 

north. This allows for increasingly effective warm/moist air 

advection amidst a prolonged period of southerly to southwesterly 

flow. Temperatures are forecast to rebound to well-above 

climatological averages by midweek, with highs potentially climbing 

into the upper 60s and 70s and lows 15-25 degrees warmer than they 

were at the start of the period. Thus, the precipitation that falls 

on Tuesday and beyond will come in the form of rain showers. 

Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the latter stages of the work 

week, which is appropriate given that the first week of March is 

Severe Weather Awareness Week here in Kentucky. Interests are 

accordingly encouraged to check www.weather.gov/wrn/spring-campaign-

sm-plan and to monitor the NWS Jackson KY social media platforms for 

themed thunderstorm safety information graphics each day. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026



VFR conditions are prevailing with this TAF issuance. This will

persist through much of the afternoon; however, overnight tonight

increasing and lowering CIGS is anticipated as a system moves

through the Ohio Valley. CIGS are forecast to dip into low-end

VFR/high end MVFR after 12Z but quickly improving back to VFR

by 17Z. Isolated showers may be possible but confidence on

placement was lacking; therefore, PoP chances were omitted from

all TAF sites. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through

the period but will pick up toward the end of the period with the

passing disturbance.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...VORST

LONG TERM...MARCUS

AVIATION...VORST