310 FXUS63 KJKL 281051 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 551 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist through tonight, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. - After low chances (20 to 30%) for measurable rain behind the cold front late tonight and early on Sunday, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week. - There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations late Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 535 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026 Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the northeastern portion of Hudson Bay with a trough across Ontario and the Great Lakes to the OH Valley and Southeast. Meanwhile an upper level ridge was centered east of Baja with the ridging extending north along the west Coast of the Conus while to the west an upper low over the eastern Pacific. Northwest flow was prevalent from the Gulf of AK across western Canada and the international border to the Great Lakes to the west of the trough axis. Also moving within the trough was a shortwave that extended from James Bay to the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered southeast of James Bay with a cold front/baroclinic zone into the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Central Plains and then northwest to MT. A ridge of sfc high pressure was departing to the southeast and was centered over the vicinity of the Blue Ridge. The front is rather moisture starved with southern extent and clear skies and light winds under high pressure in valley locations has allowed temperatures to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures elsewhere ranged through the 30s to the mid or even upper 40s in the thermal belt locations such as the Pike County Mesonet station which is currently 48. The upper level trough will remain from the James Bay vicinity south into parts of the central and eastern Conus to southeast through the weekend. A dry cold front will sag into northern KY today and then as a disturbance moving through the trough interacts with the baroclinic zone and an associated sfc wave moves from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley the boundary will sag further into eastern KY tonight, eventually dropping across eastern TN and the Southern Appalachians Sunday. Moisture will be limited with this system, but enough saturation may occur in the low to mid levels for patchy light rain or isolated to scattered showers may occur late tonight to early on Sunday, generally north of a Rockcastle to Pike County line. Any measurable rainfall would be a couple of hundredths at best. Southwest to west flow between the departing high to the southeast of the area and the approaching front will allow for temperatures to warm even higher compared to Friday with highs expected to range through the 60s to around 70 in the lower elevations downwind of VA border where a bit of extra warming may occur on modest downslope component in the low level flow. The mild temperatures and drier airmass brought into the area by the sfc high that only gradually becomes more moist by late afternoon should result in min afternoon rh in the 28 to 45% range. After any early morning showers or spotty light rain in the southeast, rain free weather is expected for Sunday as a sfc high moving into the Great Lakes noses into eastern KY. A more substantial system approaches in the start of the near term period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 There will be a persistent threat of precipitation through most of the long term period, with the period looking rather wet overall. A cold front is expected to be passing southeast through the forecast area at the start of the period and exiting during the day Sunday. This front, and low pressure systems moving along it, will be the main features for the entire long term time frame. Little moisture return will occur before the front's initial passage on Sunday, and the POP looks low and any precip very light on Sunday. Moving forward in time, the forecast issues center on the amount of cold/dry air which initially arrives behind the front, and the extent of gulf moisture which ends up overriding the cold air Sunday night into Monday as high pressure over the far southeast CONUS breaks down. Models dont agree on these things, with the NAM allowing colder/drier air to arrive as compared to the ECMWF or GFS. The NAM also has less flow off the gulf. As a result, the 12Z NAM is dry for our area on Sunday night and Monday, while the 12Z GFS (the wettest model) had 1/4-3/4" water equivalent for almost the whole area for those 24 hours. Complicating matters, the GFS is cold enough for a wintery mix during this time (mainly in our northern counties), giving more significant impacts than would occur with just rain. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF is warm enough for mainly rain. With all that in mind, forecast confidence is not very high, and the official forecast using blended data will tend to smooth things out. Models differences continue from Monday night on, especially with positioning/timing of the wavering front as a couple of low pressure systems develop and track along it. The National Blend of Models in use will again tend to smooth this out, when the reality as things play out will probably be more defined precip and temperature regimes. Thus, confidence in forecast specifics is still not very high. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all sites at TAF issuance. Under the regime of high pressure, TAFs should be VFR through the period; however, river valley fog may develop early this morning in the most sheltered locales. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast tonight becoming southwest to west around 5 kts on Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEERTSON/VORST