790 FXUS63 KJKL 280507 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1207 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. - After low chances (<20%) for measurable rain in the north behind a late weekend cold front, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week. - There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026 Nudged tonight's minimum temperatures a couple of degrees lower in the valleys -- upper 20s to lower 30s for most. Otherwise, expect clear skies to continue through the early morning with the possibility of a little patchy fog in the most sheltered valleys. UPDATE Issued at 920 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 Temperatures have dipped into the 30s/40s valleys and are nearing 50F over the thermal belt ridge. Still anticipate widespread lows in the 30s through the valleys and low 40s on thermal belt ridges. Some upper 20s cannot be ruled in the colder hollows (like Sandy Hook and West Liberty). UPDATE Issued at 608 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 A gorgeous evening is underway across eastern Kentucky with fair skies and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. The forecast remains on track -- expect temperatures to fall quickly after sunset into the 40s through late evening with the colder valleys dipping into the 30s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 As of the latest surface analysis, a 1021 mb surface high pressure center is positioned over the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. While this high is centered well to the northeast, its influence extends across much of the eastern CONUS, including eastern Kentucky. Locally, dry weather and mostly clear skies prevail, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s and lower 60s. Through the remainder of the day and much of the forecast period, surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature, maintaining dry weather and above-average temperatures. Afternoon highs today are expected to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight, low-level southwesterly flow will sustain a WAA regime. However, clear skies and light winds will promote strong radiational cooling, leading to a ridge-valley temperature split. Sheltered valleys in eastern Kentucky could see lows drop into the lower 30s, while higher elevations may only fall into the upper 30s or low 40s. On Sunday, high pressure persists, though a longwave trough traversing the northern CONUS will begin to influence the Ohio Valley. Within a longwave trough progged to move into the Great Lakes, an embedded jet streak will support the progression of a surface cyclone from central Canada toward the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will sweep across the northern CONUS as this occurs. In addition to surface frontogenetic forcing, upper- level divergence will provide synoptic lift to support PoP across the Ohio Valley including portions of the JKL CWA. Current model suites have maintained 15 to 25 percent PoP chances for areas north and northwest of a line from Rockcastle to Breathitt to Johnson counties, marking an increase in coverage compared to previous forecasts. Furthermore, forecast soundings have eliminated the threat of mixed precipitation, indicating strictly rain potential from late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The forecast period will be characterized by surface high pressure, dry weather, and above-average temperatures, interrupted only by the passing northern stream wave bringing isolated rain showers through early Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 There will be a persistent threat of precipitation through most of the long term period, with the period looking rather wet overall. A cold front is expected to be passing southeast through the forecast area at the start of the period and exiting during the day Sunday. This front, and low pressure systems moving along it, will be the main features for the entire long term time frame. Little moisture return will occur before the front's initial passage on Sunday, and the POP looks low and any precip very light on Sunday. Moving forward in time, the forecast issues center on the amount of cold/dry air which initially arrives behind the front, and the extent of gulf moisture which ends up overriding the cold air Sunday night into Monday as high pressure over the far southeast CONUS breaks down. Models dont agree on these things, with the NAM allowing colder/drier air to arrive as compared to the ECMWF or GFS. The NAM also has less flow off the gulf. As a result, the 12Z NAM is dry for our area on Sunday night and Monday, while the 12Z GFS (the wettest model) had 1/4-3/4" water equivalent for almost the whole area for those 24 hours. Complicating matters, the GFS is cold enough for a wintery mix during this time (mainly in our northern counties), giving more significant impacts than would occur with just rain. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF is warm enough for mainly rain. With all that in mind, forecast confidence is not very high, and the official forecast using blended data will tend to smooth things out. Models differences continue from Monday night on, especially with positioning/timing of the wavering front as a couple of low pressure systems develop and track along it. The National Blend of Models in use will again tend to smooth this out, when the reality as things play out will probably be more defined precip and temperature regimes. Thus, confidence in forecast specifics is still not very high. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all sites at TAF issuance. Under the regime of high pressure, TAFs should be VFR through the period; however, river valley fog may develop early this morning in the most sheltered locales. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast tonight becoming southwest to west around 5 kts on Saturday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GEERTSON SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...GEERTSON/VORST