884 FXUS63 KJKL 310818 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 318 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area from the north and northeast. - A passing storm system to our south will bring a small chance of mainly rain to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday. - Below normal temperatures will persist through New Year's Day. Temperatures will overall trend warmer through early next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025 Northwest flow continues through the period, with a disturbance bringing primarily flurries or virga early this morning before quickly exiting east this afternoon, followed by a slightly stronger disturbance poised to graze parts of northeastern and southeastern Kentucky tonight into Thursday. After an examination of the 00z CAMS, we trended a bit more aggressive with PoPs beginning at 00z this evening through 16z Thursday, but generally any snow accumulations should remain light, with less than one-half inch where snow does accumulate, which will generally favor the US Highway 23 corridor. Any lingering snow will end by midday Thursday as cold advection ends, though west-northwesterly upslope flow continues to keep sufficient moisture for low clouds through the remainder of the daytime hours for much of eastern Kentucky. With partial clearing later this morning, and only mid and high clouds for much of the afternoon, along with weak warm advection, high temperatures will rise into the upper 30s north to lower to mid- 40s south and east. Lows tonight will remain milder than recent nights given the weak warm advection and extensive low cloud cover with the system grazing our area, with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. We did trim high temperatures a few degrees lower than the NBM Deterministic for Thursday given the likelihood of low clouds lingering through much of the daytime hours, with mid-30s north to mid-40s south expected. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 318 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025 The forecast period begins with surface high pressure and rising upper-level geopotential heights. This configuration will support dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through the start of the period. Upper-level northwesterly flow will shift to the northeast as a shortwave impulse develops within quasi-zonal flow. Weak upper- level divergence will support surface cyclogenesis across the Southern Plains; this surface low will then track toward the Commonwealth through the weekend. The area will remain dry through the day Friday. However, as the surface low translates eastward, PoP (10-40%) will increase from Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding the system track through the Tennessee Valley. With the forecast area remaining north of the surface warm front, thermal profiles suggest temperatures will be warm enough to support mostly rain. An isolated rain-snow mix cannot be ruled out along the northern fringe of the precipitation shield, though the southern track of the low will keep the highest precipitation chances across the southern half of the CWA. Surface high pressure will build back into the region Saturday night in the wake of the departing surface wave. Dry weather and slightly above-average temperatures are expected through the end of the weekend and into early next week. The second surface wave is forecast to move through the southern Great Lakes as early as Tuesday morning. A dry warm frontal passage on Monday will place the area within the warm sector. While the Tuesday wave remains mostly north, low-end PoP chances (around 20%) will exist for the eastern half of the CWA through the end of the forecast period. The forecast window will be characterized by a couple of weak transient systems that will not provide substantial QPF or high PoP. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal averages through the period, with much of the region remaining dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with the exception of some brief, localized dips to MVFR ceilings over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. West to southwest winds will pick up during the day Wednesday, with gusts near 20 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...HAL