457 FXUS63 KJKL 302030 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 330 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area from the north and northeast. - Though there is considerable uncertainty at this time, especially with regards to temperatures, we are monitoring a southern stream system which has some potential to bring a cold rain and perhaps some wintry precipitation to parts of the area Friday night into early Saturday. - Wintery temperatures will persist through the end of 2025 and into the beginning of 2026. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 205 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025 At current, cloud cover continues to erode away, leading to periods of sunny skies this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the upper 20s to low 30s and are forecast to warm to near freezing for most of the area. This evening, a ridge of high pressure remains southeast of the area. Light westerly winds become southwesterly through the night, while a system passes though the Upper Great Lakes region. Cloud cover will increase from the north this evening, mainly after 10 PM. While clear skies and light winds are typically good for valleys to decouple (leading to steep temperature drop offs), increased cloud cover, and winds out of the west are a few limiting factors. In addition, the pressure gradient across Eastern Kentucky is about 4-mb, which is also pretty steep. Adjustments have been made in the forecasted low tonight to be less aggressive with ridge-valley splits and decoupling effects, and instead confine edits to southeastern portions of the CWA, where areas closest to the high pressure center are thought to have the greatest chances to decouple. Lows tonight range from the low to mid 20s, with colder valleys in the southeast potentially seeing upper teens to low 20s. Flurries or a snow shower may be possible across northeastern parts of the area with the increased cloud cover tonight, however limited moisture will make snow showers extremely limited. Wednesday, west to southwest winds will advect some warm air into the region, leading to highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. As a low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes, exits into New England, a trailing cold front will approach the Ohio Valley out of the northwest during the afternoon. Some light snow showers and perhaps pockets of rain mixing with snow are looking increasingly likely mainly along and northeast of KY-15. NBM ensembles have had a 15-35% chance of an inch of snow or more along and east of US-23 in far Eastern Kentucky over the last few model runs. Lows on New-Years-Eve hover around 30 for the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025 The long wave pattern will start out amplified over the majority of the CONUS. A sprawling upper level low starts out positioned near Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow expanded southward across the eastern third of the CONUS. Meanwhile, sharper ridging will be aligned from British Columbia through the Four Corners region. The southeastern Canadian low will continue to spiral over the vicinity of the Hudson Bay region through the weekend. The broader cyclonic flow in the East will gradually relent with time, as the upstream ridge approaches and dampens the flow east of the Mississippi River. Model agreement is good through Saturday, but then lessens by the second half of the weekend and especially by early next week. On Thursday, the clipper system will be pulling away early in the morning, with light snow/flurries quickly coming to end after daybreak in far eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be a bit colder compared to Wednesday, as highs recover to the mid 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s down in the Cumberland Valley. Winds will turn southerly Thursday night, with plenty of high clouds moving in from the southwest. Still, valleys should decouple, with the typically colder spots dipping into the lower 20s, while ridgetops stay above 30. An influx of cloud cover is now looking like the majority of impact from a passing southern stream storm system Friday into Saturday. The blended guidance probabilities have come down sharply on measurable precipitation during this time frame compared to previous days. Not too surprisingly, low temperatures have also come down in the north for Friday night, as north to northeast low level flow and the potential for at least partially clearing skies will allow for some mid 20s north of the Mountain Parkway. If light precipitation were to occur, it will likely fall as rain. Drier weather will take hold for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Model guidance differs quite a bit on the impact of the next weather system. Will stick with the given blended slight chance PoPs to return to the forecast by Monday night, but this is low confidence at best, as timing and amplitudinal differences in smaller scale features are both apparent at this time. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal through early next week, so any precipitation would likely be in liquid form. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025 Conditions continue to erode away an OVC025 deck, with VFR conditions expected shortly after 18Z. Look for winds generally from the west at 5 to 10 kts with an occasional gust near 20 kts. After a period of clearing this afternoon, low clouds increase from the northwest after 03z tonight as a system brushes the area, though cigs are expected to remain VFR. There is a period between 06Z and 13Z this evening, where wind shear is possible, though confidence on coverage and intensity remain low. Decided to leave out of the TAFs but mention here. Winds increase towards the end of the TAF period with west to southwest winds 5 to 10 kts occasionally gusting to around 20 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC