657 FXUS63 KJKL 300741 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 241 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers and flurries will end this morning, followed by clearing skies for this afternoon. - Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area from the north and northeast. - Though there is considerable uncertainty at this time, especially with regards to temperatures, we are monitoring a southern stream system which has some potential to bring a cold rain and perhaps some wintry precipitation to parts of the area Friday night into early Saturday. - Wintery temperatures will persist through the end of 2025 and into the beginning of 2026. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025 Fast northwesterly flow aloft persists through the short-term amidst strong ridging over the western CONUS and a deep trough over southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. The upper disturbance responsible for enhancing the cold advection snow showers across eastern Kentucky overnight departs to the east by mid-morning, with light snow ending followed quickly by clearing skies in the afternoon. Despite clear skies in the afternoon, temperatures will only rise into the 30 to 35 degree range due to the lack of any appreciable advection, with light westerly winds continuing. Low clouds increase tonight from the north as a mostly dry disturbance brushes by the area quickly. Good optimal radiational cooling in the few hours after sunset and before clouds increase should allow for temperatures to fall well down into the teens to lower 20s, coldest in the more protected sheltered valleys. A few flurries or light snow showers will be possible with the clouds tonight, especially toward northeastern Kentucky, but nothing significant with regards to impacts as moisture will be extremely limited. Weak warm advection will develop late tonight into Wednesday, and this allow for highs to rise several degrees into the upper 30s north to lower 40s south Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will increase by early Wednesday evening from the northwest ahead of the next disturbance in northwesterly flow aloft. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 429 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025 An amplified long wave pattern will remain in place through the close of 2025. A deep cutoff low will persist over southeastern Canada, with broad troughing fanned southward all the way through the eastern Gulf of America. Further west, sharper ridging will be aligned from western Canada through the Desert Southwest. The closed low will gyre in and around Hudson Bay through the start of 2026. This feature then diminishes through this weekend and into early next week, as the aforementioned ridge translates downstream and effectively cancels out the once established broad cyclonic flow and transitions it to more zonal flow. While the models have come into somewhat better agreement on the evolution of this, some uncertainty still remains regarding the smaller scale details. On Wednesday, return flow will engage out ahead of an approaching clipper-type storm system. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s bordering Tennessee. This clipper will bring the next chance of light snow to eastern Kentucky to ring in the new year. Models continue to indicate only a brush from this storm system, with the majority of the moisture/upper level support remaining just to our northeast. As such, most impacts will be limited, and mainly confined to along and east of US-23. A slight cool down will occur Thursday behind the departed clipper, with highs a few degrees less than Wednesday. Temperatures will then rebound back to near normal readings through the weekend, and even above normal by early next week, with mainly 40s seen each day, and some 50s in the south. A southern stream system will affect eastern Kentucky Friday through Saturday. Have kept PoPs nearly steady-state in the forecast, given the somewhat lower probabilities seen in some of the ensemble data compared to yesterday. Temperatures have more decisively trended warmer though leading into this system, increasing confidence that this would mainly fall in the form of rain. There will also likely be a tighter cutoff to the measurable precipitation north to south compared to what is currently reflected in the forecast. Dry weather returns for the second half of the weekend and into early next week, with a transient surface high pressure passing through the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025 A mostly high end MVFR cloud deck will persist over the bulk of eastern Kentucky until between 06 and 09Z. Light snow showers and flurries will remain possible, at times, but confidence in tangible impacts at a particular terminal remains too low to mention in the TAFs aside from VCSH and a near term tempo group. Westerly winds at around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts initially will gradually subside through the early morning hours. After 09Z, the lower cloud deck is expected to start to break up/erode from the west. Look for benign, VFR conditions on Tuesday with winds generally from the west at 5 to 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...GREIF