399 FXUS62 KJAX 290707 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 307 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Heat Advisory for NE FL and Much of SE GA this Afternoon/Evening - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today & Thursday - Low Potential for Slow Tropical Development off the Southeast U.S. Coast Later This Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Heat Advisory for NE FL and Much of SE GA this Afternoon/Evening - Isolated strong storm potential north-central FL this afternoon/evening "Heat Wave" ridging aloft strengthens as it remains centered to our northwest bringing another hot day to the region. Temperatures will soar into the mid-upper 90s area-wide with peak heat indices this afternoon in the 105-110 F range. Heat Advisories are in place for NE FL and portions of SE GA mainly south of Alma. Light WNW flow today will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to shift slightly further inland into the St Johns river basin by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave aloft and corresponding surface trough will shift southward down the southeastern seaboard adding additional forcing along the sea breezes. Isolated showers and storms will develop along the sea breezes becoming widely scattered as boundaries collide and the influence of the added forcing aloft moves overhead. Best chance for numerous storms will be in north- central FL where the highest moisture (PWATs 2+ in) are located this afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms could develop along boundary interactions with gusty winds as the main threat. Another round of showers and storms move in from the north later this evening as a stronger passing shortwave associated with remnant MCS outflow pushes into SE GA. Convection gradually wanes through the night. Overnight lows will be above seasonable in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Numerous Inland Storms on Tuesday with Scattered Strong Storms Possible By Tuesday, steering flow will strengthen and become northeasterly, advecting more seasonable moisture into the region while favoring a stronger Atlantic sea breeze. This will keep the Gulf sea breeze pinned farther west, shifting the primary corridor for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to locations along and west of the NE FL coastal counties. This evolution is supported by the WPC Short Range Forecast, which continues to depict a weak frontal boundary lingering across the Southeast that will provide additional focus for convection. Forecast confidence is highest across inland north central and northeast Florida, with PoPs generally ranging from 60 to 80 percent. North of I-10 and east of highway 301 rain chances are the 30 to 40 percent range in the wake of the east coast sea breeze. Greater cloud cover, increasing northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph, and a modest onshore flow will limit daytime heating. High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s, with peak heat indices range from 100 to 107 degrees, remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. By Wednesday, weak surface troughing will gradually settle southward while an expansive upper ridge builds eastward toward the Mid Atlantic states, establishing a deeper easterly flow across the region. However, during the midweek period, there will be an initial slug of drier air moving in with PWATS at 1..25 to 1.5 inches north of I-10 and 1.5 to 1.75 inches south of I-10. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be limited to mainly areas along and south of SR16 in northeast FL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Typical Heat becomes Seasonably Hot Again by Independence Day The late week pattern will feature a strong subtropical ridge anchored across the eastern United States, centered over the Ohio and TN River Valleys maintaining above normal temperatures and humid conditions through the holiday weekend. While widespread record heat is not anticipated locally, dangerous afternoon heat indices will remain possible, especially before convection develops. Lower storm chances are expected Thursday, with chances around 20- 40% mainly south the FL/GA border, with morning isolated to widely scattered activity near the coast, then scattered coverage will be focused over inland areas during the afternoon and evening. Persistent easterly flow will keep temperatures near seasonal normals while gradually increasing low level moisture supports daily scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, with numerous coverage for north central FL. An upper level disturbance embedded within the easterly flow may approach Friday, potentially enhancing convective coverage and increasing the potential for locally strong thunderstorms particularly south of the FL/GA border. Rain chances will gradually increase into the holiday weekend as deeper moisture returns with precipitable water values increase above 2 inches south of Folkston, where scattered coverage of thunderstorms are anticipated. Highs on Independence Day will be in the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s in the coast. The weak Atlantic trough will continue to be monitored for potential subtropical development through the end of the week. However, forecast confidence remains very low, and no significant impacts to the local forecast are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail for much of the period. Patchy fog may develop at VQQ in the pre-dawn hours lowering visibilities. returning for the majority of the forecast period. Calm winds overnight become northwest around 5 kts after 13Z. Isolated showers and storms likely develop near the sites after 18z-20z. Have PROB30s in for prevailing TSRA and breezy winds between 20-01Z. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will then approach the Georgia waters from the north tonight, with this boundary then stalling over the northeast Florida waters later on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage on today into tonight over our local waters, with activity then shifting from the waters adjacent to St. Augustine southward on Tuesday. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard in the wake of this stalling frontal boundary will result in breezy northeasterly winds throughout our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by onshore winds gradually diminishing later this week. Rip Currents: Lower surf heights today will drop the rip current risk to low at the southeast GA beaches, with a lower end moderate risk continuing at the northeast FL beaches. Persistent and breezy northeasterly winds on Tuesday should yield a solid moderate risk at all area beaches, with a potential high risk on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Monday - Areas Of High Dispersion Across Se Ga Tuesday A weak surface trough will shift southeast across the area on Monday, accompanied by a wind shift to the northwest. The trough will interact with the sea breezes, resulting in numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with a few strong storms possible. By Tuesday, increasing northeasterly to easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph will shift the highest rain and thunderstorm chances westward toward the Interstate 75 corridor and the Florida Big Bend region. Increasing northwesterly transport winds on Monday may produce areas of high daytime dispersion across portions of the forecast area. Dispersions will remain high across Southeast Georgia on Tuesday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected during the next several days. Stronger storms will be capable of producing strong and erratic wind gusts, along with frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours, especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding continues along lower portions of the Satilla River Basin, as water levels have crested in minor flood stage at the gauge near Atkinson. Minor flooding will continue during the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 95 72 / 20 30 30 10 SSI 95 79 90 79 / 30 40 10 0 JAX 97 76 93 76 / 30 40 20 10 SGJ 96 77 92 77 / 30 40 20 10 GNV 97 75 95 73 / 30 40 60 10 OCF 96 76 93 75 / 40 40 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$