754 FXUS62 KJAX 310503 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1203 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Widespread Freeze Expected Tonight & Early Wednesday Morning. Freeze Warning for All of Southeast GA, Inland Northeast & North Central FL. Wind Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Early on Wed Morning Cold Weather Advisories. Frost Advisory for Northeast Florida coast. Light Freeze with Widespread Frost Potential at Inland Locations on Wed Night - Elevated Wildfire Danger at Inland Locations on Wednesday Afternoon. Minimum Relative Humidity Values of 20-25% & West- Northwest Winds of 10-15 mph - Small Craft Advisory offshore waters Wednesday Night - Isolated Thunderstorms & Beneficial Rainfall Expected Sat & Sat Night && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today...Cold high pressure will build into the Northern Gulf and Northwest flow will continue to keep below normal temps in place under Sunny skies, with highs in the lower/middle 50s SE GA and mid/upper 50s NE FL. Surface winds will generally remain around 10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph at times through the afternoon hours. Tonight...High pressure ridge will build from the Gulf across the Florida Peninsula just to the south of the local NE FL/SE GA area. This will continue a West to Northwest cold flow and expect another potential light freeze and/or widespread frost in place for all inland locations with lows around 30F, while lower to middle 30s are expected along the I-95 corridor east to the Atlantic beaches. Frost and Freeze products will likely need to be issued for most of SE GA and NE FL counties by the day shift once the current Frost/Freeze warnings expire this morning. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Mid/upper level troughing pattern over the eastern half of the U.S. will begin to flatten as an embedded shortwave rotates through the NE states to the New England coast. As flow over the region becomes more zonal, this will shift weakening surface high pressure over the central Gulf waters towards the FL peninsula by late afternoon with westerly winds increasing to 10-15 mph as a cold front passes just east of the area as it moves away from the SE coast. Skies will be sunny with cirrus clouds arriving late and highs will rebound to near normal in the low 60s over SE GA and the mid 60s over NE FL. Thursday night, high level cirrus clouds will increase across the area overnight as high pressure shifts over central/southern FL. Lows will dip below normal in the mid 30s inland with isolated low 30s north of I-10, upper 30s over inland north central FL, and the low 40s along the coast. Friday, zonal flow aloft prevails Friday downstream of a southern stream shortwave impulse moving into the southern plains. High pressure will move east across southern FL to the northern Bahamas and local winds will become southwesterly as a warm front lifts to our west from the Gulf coast to the TN valley with increasing showers over the deep south. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover will spread over the area, but with cold air advection ending, highs will rise a few degrees warmer than Thursday into the mid 60s over SE GA and upper 60s over NE FL and around 70F over north central FL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday, southern stream shortwave trough will move through the southeast states while northern stream energy dives southeastward from Canada into the western Great Lakes amplifying deep troughing east of the MS river. This will create a wave of low pressure over the ArklaMiss region that will push east across the deep south to the SC/GA coast through the day. Southerly winds will veer to southwesterly above the surface ahead of the low and moisture levels will increase above the 90th percentile to 1.3-1.5 inches and aid numerous showers spreading northeastward from the Gulf coast over the Suwannee River valley into SE GA by the afternoon hours. Isolated, embedded T'storms will also develop with the heavier rounds of showers in the afternoon, albeit mostly elevated. While strong shear will be present over the area, low level instability appears very limited to SW GA and Gulf coast in northern FL/nature coast, so any strong to severe T'storm potential is low at this time. A round of showers and isolated T'storms will move across NE FL Saturday evening with generally half inch to one inch totals, with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches expected across the area. Light showers will remain into the early morning hours while light winds shift northwesterly under mostly cloudy skies as a cold front sinks through the area behind the departing low. Sunday, the cold front will sink south of the area by late morning with winds becoming northerly as high pressure builds in from the NW. Some low level moisture may hang back behind the front over north central FL as a another wave of low pressure forms along the front and treks ESE across central/southern FL to the Bahamas, with drizzle lingering there and near the NE FL coast. Monday, high pressure will shift from the north to more to the north northeast near the Delmarva peninsula with northeasterly winds turning more easterly through the day. The onshore flow will send Atlantic stratocumulus clouds across the coastal waters as a weak coastal trough forms with some cloud cover moving onto the first coast and into the southern St Johns river basin, but showers are not expected. Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will be over the region as a shortwave impulse streaks eastward across the Great Lakes and the OH river valley. Weak high pressure will shift from the deep south over the area as a cold front approaches the region, but stays north of the area. Light winds from the southwest will prevail with a weak Atlantic seabreeze moving onshore in the afternoon. Temperatures will begin around 5 degrees above normal Saturday, cool to near normal Sunday and then trend above normal into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail this 06z TAF period. West to Northwest winds will generally be in the 5-10 knot range with an occasional gust close to 15 knots during the daytime hours. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building eastward from Texas will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across the Gulf tonight and Thursday, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Gusty northwesterly winds will continue through tonight with Small Craft Advisory headlines in place for the offshore waters again late tonight. Breezy westerly winds will prevail through early Thursday evening before shifting to southwesterly while briefly diminishing on Friday afternoon and evening. Weak low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will shift eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday, moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of this storm system on Sunday and Sunday night. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Wednesday NE FL Moderate Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON... West to northwesterly winds continue today, with cold and dry air remaining over the region. The dry air will bring Min RH values into the 20s area-wide again today. The driest air will be over inland southeast Georgia with RH values in the lower 20s, a bit higher over northeast Florida where min RH values will be in the mid to upper 20s. With winds 10-15 mph with higher gusts up to 20-25 mph and ongoing drought, elevated fire danger conditions expected over inland areas (both Southeast GA and Northeast FL). Fair to good dispersions continue through midweek. A gradual increase in low level moisture expected by Friday. A low pressure system will bring a wetting rainfall to the area Saturday into Saturday night. Dry conditions arrive by midday Sunday into early next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost and freeze over inland locations early this morning with frost melting by the late morning hours. Isolated thunderstorm potential Saturday into Saturday evening, with locally heavier rainfall amounts up to 1-2 inches. Fog not expected the next couple of mornings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 54 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 54 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 56 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 56 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 56 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236- 237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233- 325-333. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ470-472. && $$