168 FXUS62 KJAX 301826 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 126 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Widespread Freeze Expected Tonight and Early Wednesday Morning. Freeze Warning Tonight and Early Wednesday Morning for Southeast GA, Inland Northeast and North Central FL. Light Freeze with Widespread Frost Potential at Inland Locations on Wednesday Night. - Wind Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Degrees Area-Wide Early on Wednesday Morning. Cold Weather Advisories Issued Overnight through Early Wednesday Morning for All of Northeast and North Central FL. - Elevated Wildfire Danger at Inland Locations on Wednesday Afternoon. - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches. - Isolated Thunderstorms with Beneficial Rainfall Expected on Saturday and Saturday Night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Afternoon surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1036 millibars) centered near the Arklatex region that was building eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. This feature has pushed the strong cold front that moved across our area yesterday southward all the way to Mexico' Yucatan peninsula, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas. Aloft...deep troughing prevails over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with the base of this longwave trough progressing eastward across the Deep South. A 165-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (about 35,000 feet) located east of the Delmarva peninsula was generating a shield of high altitude cloud cover across our area, with the back edge of this cloud shield now progressing southeastward towards upper portions of the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA. Cloud cover and cold air advection on the heels of a chilly west-northwesterly breeze was keeping temperatures mostly in the 40s as of 18Z, while dewpoints ranged from the upper teens across portions of inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley to the 20s elsewhere. The base of deep troughing will pivot eastward across our area this evening, pushing the aforementioned jet streak northeastward to a position well east of coastal New England. This will allow for the high altitude cloud shield to exit our area this late this afternoon from northwest to southeast , with clearing skies expected early this evening. Meanwhile, surface ridging building into the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon will begin to gradually weaken tonight as it expands eastward along the northern Gulf coast. This will allow our local pressure gradient to gradually loosen, but enough of a gradient will exist to keep winds in the 4-8 mph range at most locations. These winds will likely limit widespread frost formation, but will drive wind chill values down to the 20-25 degree range at most locations by sunrise on Wednesday. A Cold Weather Advisory has thus been issued for all of northeast and north central FL, where lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s, combined with sustained wind speeds of 5-10 mph, should drive wind chill values to below thresholds (25 degree wind chill values) overnight and early Wednesday morning. A widespread light freeze is expected by early Wednesday morning for all but coastal northeast FL and urban areas in Duval County, and Freeze Warnings have thus been issued for all inland locations in northeast and north central FL as well as coastal southeast GA and coastal Nassau County. A few wind sheltered locations in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA could experience a brief hard freeze, where lows will possibly fall to the mid 20s early on Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Another chilly and dry day is forecast Wednesday, with high temperatures staying in the lower to mid 50s area-wide despite clear skies. Low temperatures will dip into the 30s for most of the area, with a few locations along the St. Johns river and immediate northeast Florida coast staying near 40 degrees. A light freeze is likely for much of inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley area, with inland formation likely as well due to light winds. Around midnight for fireworks time, temperatures will be generally in the upper 30s to low 40s with clear skies. Temperatures will warm up about 5-10 degrees on Thursday as high pressure over the Gulf builds towards the Florida peninsula. Lows Thursday night will remain above freezing, but still cold in the mid to upper 30s inland and low 40s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure continues to shift eastward over the Florida peninsula as a front approaches the area from the northwest. Friday will remain dry with high temperatures in the 60s as cloud cover increases. After sunset Friday, showers will begin to move into southeast Georgia, spreading southward through the night. By daybreak Saturday, high rain chances will be present north of I-10 with activity continuing to move southward and clear of the land area by Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Saturday area-wide, overall rainfall totals are about 0.15-0.5 inches. Temperatures this weekend will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. High cloud cover this afternoon will shift south of our region towards sunset this evening. West-northwesterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots will diminish to 5-10 knots towards 00Z, with speeds then increasing back to around 10 knots by 15Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building eastward from Texas will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across the Gulf on Wednesday night and Thursday, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Gusty northwesterly winds tonight and early Wednesday morning will keep Caution conditions, featuring wind speeds of 15-20 knots, in place across most of our local waters through Thursday. Winds will then shift to southwesterly while briefly diminishing on Friday afternoon and evening. Weak low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will shift eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday, moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of this storm system on Sunday and Sunday night. Rip Currents: Southeast GA Beaches: Moderate this Afternoon, Low on Wednesday Northeast FL Beaches: Moderate through Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... West-northwesterly winds continue through midweek, bringing cooler and drier air into the region. The dry air will bring Min RH values into the 20s area-wide Today and Wednesday. The driest air will be found over inland southeast Georgia with RH values in the lower 20s, while northeast Florida will have RH values in the mid to upper 20s. A light breeze continues today but is anticipated to remain just below Elevated Fire Danger Criteria. Fair to good dispersions this afternoon continue through midweek. Low-level moisture gradually increases through the week as a front moves through the area on Saturday. More substantial rain is expected with this frontal passage compared to the previous front. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost and freeze over inland locations Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 28 54 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 32 55 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 29 56 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 34 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 29 57 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 29 58 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232- 236-237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$