635 FXUS62 KJAX 301442 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 942 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Widespread Freeze Expected Tonight and Early Wednesday Morning. Freeze Watch Tonight & Early Wednesday Morning for Southeast GA and Most of Northeast and North Central FL. - Wind Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Degrees Early on Wednesday Morning. Additional Inland Light Freeze with Widespread Frost Potential Inland on Wednesday Night - Small Craft Advisory through Early This Afternoon for the Atlantic Coastal Waters. - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. - Isolated Thunderstorms and Beneficial Rainfall Expected on Saturday. && .UPDATE... Mid-morning surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1035 millibars) centered over the Red River Valley of northern Texas. This feature has pushed the strong cold front that moved across our area yesterday southward to the Straits of FL and the northwestern Bahamas this morning. Aloft...deep troughing prevails over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with the base of this longwave trough progressing eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. A 165-knot jet streak at 250 millibars (about 35,000 feet) located east of the Delmarva peninsula was generating a shield of high altitude cloud cover across our area this morning, with breaks in this cloudiness for locations northwest of Waycross in southeast GA. The morning sounding at Jacksonville revealed brisk northwesterly flow below 750 millibars (around 8,000 feet), which was advecting a seasonably cold and dry air mass into our region, with only 0.25 inches of PWAT measured by the 12Z radiosonde. Cloud cover and gusty northwesterly winds were keeping temperatures at 14Z in the 30s for southeast GA and most of northeast FL, ranging to the 40-45 degree range for north central and portions of coastal northeast FL. Dewpoints ranged from around 20 along upper portions of the Altamaha / Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA to the low and mid 20s elsewhere. The base of deep troughing will pivot eastward across the Deep South this afternoon and tonight, pushing the aforementioned jet streak northeastward to a position well east of coastal New England by late afternoon. This will allow for the high altitude cloud shield to slowly exit our area, with clearing skies this afternoon through early this evening from northwest to southeast. Breezy northwesterly winds today and the only slowly departing cloud cover will keep highs in the 50-55 degree range for most of our area, with some locations possibly remaining in the 45-50 range due to strong cold air advection and sunshine holding off until later this afternoon. Surface ridging over Deep South Texas will begin to gradually weaken tonight as it expands eastward along the northern Gulf coast. This will allow our local pressure gradient to gradually loosen overnight, but enough of a gradient will exist to keep winds in the 5-10 mph range at most locations. These winds will likely limit widespread frost formation, but will drive wind chill values down to the 20-25 degree range at most locations by sunrise on Wednesday. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be issued early this afternoon for much of northeast and north central FL, where lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s combined with sustained wind speeds of 5-10 mph should drive wind chill values to below thresholds (25 degree wind chill values) overnight and early Wednesday morning. A widespread light freeze is expected for all but coastal northeast FL, and Freeze Watches will soon be upgraded to Freeze Warnings for the overnight through early morning Wednesday time frame. A few wind sheltered locations in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA could experience a brief hard freeze, where lows will possibly fall to the mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure builds to the west of the area over the Gulf midweek, shifting towards the FL peninsula by Thursday evening. Wednesday, high pressure over the Gulf will continue to bring northwesterly-westerly winds over the local area. Cold and dry air continues to advect into the area, but clearer skies for most of the day will allow for temperatures be a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday. Daytime highs will be in the 50s area-wide, with warmer temperatures towards north central FL and along the coast. The dry conditions will bring min RHs to dip into lower 20s across SE GA, and the mid to upper 20s across NE FL. By Wednesday night, Lows will be in the 30s area-wide setting up the potential for a light freeze primarily across inland locations as coastal locations will be near 40. With light winds and near/at freezing temperatures, patchy to areas of frost is likely to develop for inland locations west of the I-10 corridor. Thursday, a warming trend begins as daytime highs will be in the 60s area-wide. Clear skies will persist for much of the day as westerly winds develop as the high pressure over the Gulf builds towards the FL peninsula. Dry conditions will begin to steadily improve as min RHs rise into the 30s. Overnight Lows on Thursday night will primarily be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The high pressure over the FL peninsula shifts away from the area as a Low pressure system moves into the SE CONUS on Friday. The Low pressure system associated cold front will push near the area on Friday evening, bringing chances of precipitation for locations across far interior SE GA. By Saturday the front will begin to cross into the area, with showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading south through the day. Most activity currently is expected for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor with widespread to numerous showers and isolated chances for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours on Saturday, while isolated chances of showers expected for locations south of the I-10 corridor through Saturday night. By Sunday, precipitation chances begin to dwindle as the Low pressure and its associated cold front will be clear of the area. Temperatures will continue to warm through Saturday ahead of the cold front, reaching above seasonal norms by Saturday. Behind the front, temperatures are not expected to cool to much on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Northwesterly surface winds will become sustained at 10-15 knots and gusty by 13Z. Surface speeds will diminish to 5-10 knots towards 00Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building eastward from Texas will slowly weaken as it pushes eastward across the Gulf on Wednesday night and Thursday, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across most of our local waters through the early afternoon hours, with gusty northwesterly winds tonight and early Wednesday morning keeping Caution conditions in place. Breezy westerly winds will prevail through early Thursday evening before shifting to southwesterly while briefly diminishing on Friday afternoon and evening. Weak low pressure developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will shift eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday, moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system will bring showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory conditions for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of this storm system on Sunday and Sunday night. Rip Currents: Southeast GA Moderate through Wednesday Northeast FL Moderate through Wednesday && .FIRE WEATHER... Northwesterly winds continue through midweek, bringing cooler and drier into the region. The dry air will bring Min RH values into the 20s area-wide Today and Wednesday. The driest air will be found over inland southeast Georgia with RH values in the lower 20s, while northeast Florida will have RH values in the mid to upper 20s. Winds won't be as elevated as Monday, but will still bring a light breeze Today, remaining below Elevated Fire Danger Criteria. Fair to Good dispersions this afternoon steadily improve through midweek FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost over inland locations Tonight as a light freeze develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 50 27 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 51 32 56 39 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 54 28 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 55 33 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-137-140-220-225- 232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 454-470-472-474. && $$