396 FXUS64 KJAN 282321 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable warmth will persist through the upcoming week. - After a stretch of dry weather, chances for mainly light rain showers return later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Rest of today through next week... Today and Sunday: A quiet and warm afternoon is on tap across the region. The region remains under dry northwesterly flow with 850mb shortwave ridge building into the area. Southerly return flow will hold off until Sunday on the western periphery of the shortwave ridge. With deep dry air aloft and surface ridge over to just east of the area, deep mixing will be a concern both days but especially the case today. Based on that, lowered afternoon dewpoints towards gridded LAMP and HRRR, which seems to be handling mixing a touch more. Diurnal range both days, but especially today, will peak near 30F to 35F degrees, which becomes quite rare as you approach 40F diurnal range. Afternoon relative humidity will remain critically low but winds remain very light and limit fire danger concerns somewhat. Held off highlighting on fire danger in the HWO. Highs will remain seasonably warm, some 12F to 15F above (78F to 82F both days), with seasonably warm lows both tonight, some 8F to 12F above, and especially Sunday night, some 10F to 15F above (45F to 52F tonight and 50F to 55F Sunday night). Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in spots tonight but not enough confidence in HREF dense fog probs and areal coverage to highlight in the HWO. Next week: Upper pattern will consist of strengthening ridge over the Gulf while quasi zonal westerly flow will set up into the latter half of the work week. Southerly return flow will become entrenched across the region on the western periphery of subtropical Atlantic surface high. This will lead to increasing heat and some gradual uptick in humidity into the mid to latter half of the week. Seasonably warm temperatures will be the story, as they creep up, highs some 15F to 20F above (upper 70s to low 80s early week while low to mid 80s by late week) while lows some 20F to 25F above by mid to late week (low to mid 50s early week before low to mid 60s into late week). Rain chances should hold off most of the week, with a return of deeper moisture (inch to inch and a half) into late week. Some increased rain chacnes could deflect off to the north and coverage be a bit high (35 to 45 percent). However, the pattern becomes highly amplified into late week and next weekend in advance of a depeening cold core over the Baja Peninsula and strengthening upper ridge over the western Atlantic into Gulf to Caribbean Sea. This will eventually set the stage for potential impactful weather pattern into late next weekend and the following week, which is supported by some machine learning and AI guidance suite. Stay tuned as the pattern comes into agreement and fine details are ironed out. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR flight categories will continue to prevail at area TAF sites this evening, and into Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds overnight will be calm to light from the south southeast around 3 knots. Winds will continue to have a southerly component on Sunday, while increasing to around 5 knots by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 49 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 47 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 50 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 51 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 51 76 53 77 / 0 10 0 0 Greenwood 51 78 55 79 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19