413 FXUS64 KJAN 310702 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 102 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Tonight will remain chilly with lows in the mid to upper 20s. - Warming trend is expected into next year. - Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Friday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 602 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Rest of tonight... Strong surface high analyzed to the west in the ArkLaTex to northern Gulf Coast is expected to sink southward through the overnight hours. Upper air/water vapor analysis indicate ridging over the CA to Baja coastline while mean northerly flow along and east of the Continental Divide. This will keep dry conditions and surface ridging through main focus. Ridge axis will remain to the southwest, keeping light gradient surface winds around 5mph at most. Blended guidance for seasonably cool lows look on track, seasonably cool some 5-12F below (24-31F). Light winds will keep wind chills near forecast lows, so no additional cold weather headlines are needed. Widespread frost will be likely around daybreak for New Year's Eve. Forecast updates will be out shortly. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Tonight: Strong radiational cooling tonight will help temperatures bottom out in the 20s with clear skies and light winds. With light winds, temps will feel like the forecast temp values and no additional Cold Weather Advisory products are expected. Wednesday through Next Tuesday: Mid-level northerly flow will continue through Wednesday and Thursday as the Deep South remains on the west side of longwave troughing across much of the eastern CONUS. Sfc high pressure, centered over the northern Gulf, will stretch northward allowing for benign weather conditions for the New Year holiday. Temps will moderate as a result with highs back into the 50s on Wednesday and 60s on Thursday. Low temps will follow a similar trend but still remain chilly for New Years Eve with midnight temps in the 35-40 degree range to ring in the new year. Cloud cover will start to increase from the northwest by Thursday evening/Thursday night with overnight lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. We will continue to monitor fire wx conditions WED/THUR as afternoon RHs drop to 30-40 percent both afternoons. Winds will not be elevated either day so not expecting to reach warning criteria at this time. /HUN/ Guidance continues to a few showers returning Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning as a southern stream system moves across the Deep South. Thunder cannot be ruled out with that system, but the current timing does not appear to favor any severe threat. With that in mind, a few strong storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Long term guidance from both the GFS and the Euro shows the system finally moving out of our forecast area by Sunday bringing an end to rain chances to finish off the weekend. Quiet conditions will persist heading into the new work week. Southerly flow will continue across our forecast looking ahead into Tuesday with daytime highs peaking into the 60s areawide. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 36 65 48 71 / 0 0 10 40 Meridian 33 64 44 68 / 0 0 0 40 Vicksburg 36 66 49 73 / 0 0 10 40 Hattiesburg 36 68 46 74 / 0 0 0 20 Natchez 37 68 50 76 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 36 63 49 66 / 0 0 10 40 Greenwood 34 63 48 66 / 0 0 20 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /22