852 

FXUS63 KIWX 282352

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

752 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Extreme Heat Warning in effect Monday afternoon into Thursday

  evening for an extended period of high heat indices and 

  limited nighttime cooling. 



- Heat may remain a concern Friday, but chances for showers and

  thunderstorms begin to increase resulting in lower confidence

  on the amount of impacts. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026



BLUF...after extensive collaboration with surrounding offices, we 

have decided to upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning for the same 

valid period as the watch. Will break down the pros and cons 

shortly. We want to reiterate that regardless of the type of heat 

related headline, they all convey the same thing...a focus on the 

impacts of the heat to everyone. In addition to sensitive 

populations, even those that routinely work outside or have A/C will 

be impacted  



Warming today has been somewhat limited by high clouds blowoff from 

a persistent MCS to our west as well as some cu popping here and 

there across the area. Radar and satellite data showing the complex 

finally beginning to weaken. While the remnants could bring a quick 

shower to northern portions of the area later this afternoon or 

early evening models generally lean toward no impacts so pops will 

be left below 15%. Additional upstream complex are expected over the 

next day or 2, but should remain well north of the forecast area. 



We then turn our attention to the bigger story of the dramatic 

arrival of summer and extended period of increased heat and 

humidity. A mixture of headlines surround us which may pose 

challenges to our media partners in messaging. Monday will be the 

"coolest" of the next several days with many offices leaning toward 

handling this with a Heat Advisory and then look at a Watch or 

eventual Warning in the later periods. For our area, even though the 

same concerns exist, it was decided to keep messaging simple and 

just upgrade to a warning for the extended period of impacts with 

heat indicies AOA 100 degrees. There are factors that could cause 

true criteria from being met at times both Monday and Thursday, but 

it is the cumulative effects of heat and humidity, combined with 

limited overnight cooling, that pose the greatest danger. Some model 

trends are indicating the upper ridge may not fully settle over the 

area and could shift east a bit faster to allow at least the chance 

for a bit of convection. Friday may need headlines as well, but 

concerns for either convective development across the area or 

upstream complexes propagating into the region lead to greater 

uncertainty. With the focus on the heat, little will be addressed 

for now on the holiday weekend other than it will remain on the 

warmer side with additional potential for showers and storms at 

times.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 749 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026



VFR Conditions are expected at the terminals, with light and/or

variable winds this evening into the overnight. Generally, winds

will shift from more S-SE to S-SW through the period.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday to 8 PM 

     EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-

     020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.

OH...Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for 

     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

MI...Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for 

     MIZ078>081-177-277.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fisher

AVIATION...MCD