894 FXUS63 KIWX 281823 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 123 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-40% chances for light snow this afternoon and evening, mainly north of US 6. Snow accumulations up to 0.5". - Steadily increasing temperatures this week with highs in the 50s and 60s mid to late week. - A wet and soggy week is ahead with several systems expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Monitoring potential for minor flooding, especially in areas where drought is ongoing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Light snow can be seen on radar moving across southern Lake Michigan as a clipper-type system dives through the western Great Lakes. Aided by a 500mb shortwave, light snow is expected to overspread our Lower Michigan counties over the next few hours and persist through this evening. Strong frontogenesis also accompanies this system, so even though a majority of the snow should fall north of US 6, can't rule out a few isolated snow showers further south across northern Indiana and northwest Ohio too. With temperatures in the 40s this evening (especially along US 24), areas along and south of US 30 may see a rain/snow mix as opposed to just snow. QPF will be very light with this system (likely 0.10" or less), which in turn leads to light snowfall accumulations of 0.5" or less. Nonetheless, snow this afternoon and evening may create slick spots and reduced visibilities at times. As temperatures fall into the 20s overnight, watch out for slick spots on bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads! Confidence is increasing that we remain dry area-wide through Monday. There was some uncertainty just 24 hours ago but models have now resolved and are in good agreement that strong Canadian high pressure spilling across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes on Monday will suppress precipitation chances towards central and southern Indiana. All PoPs have been removed for Monday as it appears like this disturbance will pass to our south across the Ohio River Valley, where the better forcing and upper level support will be. If anywhere does get in on an isolated snow shower, it would be south of US 24. A mild and wet weather pattern is ahead to kick off March with several opportunities for rain this upcoming week into next weekend. Temperatures steadily climb each day this week, although there will be a ~10 degree temperature difference from south to north. The warmest day of the week will be Friday, when some locations south of US 24 may reach 70 degrees! Prevailing southerly winds this week will not only usher in the mild air but also aid in abundant Gulf moisture return. By the middle of the week, high pressure will be over the East Coast and mid Atlantic, which allows for several stationary fronts to stall across the mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. This then sets the stage for a continued parade of systems through our area as the pattern gets increasingly more active. Several opportunities for moderate to heavy rainfall are on the table for Wednesday and onwards, although confidence in exact timing is low. A brief period of wintry mix is expected Tuesday morning on the leading edge of the first incoming system. The dominant precipitation type then becomes rain after daybreak Tuesday as temperatures climb well above freezing into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Widespread, soaking rainfall is possible, especially south of US 30. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for flooding on Tuesday across much of Indiana. Highest confidence in heavy rain comes late in the week on Thursday and Friday, when PWATs climb to over 1" and southwesterly flow advects in dewpoints in the 50s. Embedded thunderstorms may also occur due to elevated instability of ~500 J/kg. Ensemble members from both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement about 2-4" in QPF falling over the next 7 days across our forecast area, which will be a welcome reprieve from the dry conditions we have experienced throughout the fall and winter. Flooding will once again be possible late in the week, especially along and south of US 24 where Severe to Extreme Drought has persisted since September. The rain will help to replenish soil moisture but repeated rounds of rain over our area may overwhelm the then saturated ground and cause concerns for flooding. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A low amplitude frontal wave will swing through the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon into this evening. More organized precip associated with an elevated fgen response will pass north of the terminals during this time with dry low levels likely resulting in nothing more than a few sprinkles or flurries expected in northern IN. Cigs will eventually lower into MVFR this evening into early Sunday morning otherwise with northerly winds near 10 knots. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Steinwedel